Fraport (FRA GR) Germany
Industrials
The shares have risen ~30% YTD (+75% 1Y), reaching Insight’s €75 SOTP-based TP. While recent tariff increases and the successful execution of a major capex programme have supported sentiment, the stock now trades at 8.2x 2026E EV/EBITDA (vs. 7.6x LT avg.) and looks overvalued vs. peers. Structural constraints persist, with Frankfurt’s majority state ownership, unionised workforce and insourced ground handling keeping EBITDA margins low. Aviation returns are weak, with NOPAT/RAB averaging just 3.2% in 2010-19 and only 5.4% by 2040E, still 120bps below Insight’s 6.6% WACC. Tariffs are expected to average just +2.0% p.a. through 2050E, despite high Aviation capex (€390m p.a.). With DPS resuming at only €1.0 in 2025E (1.3% yield), Insight has a Sell rating on the stock, preferring ADP (+70% upside), Aena (+55%) and FH Zurich (+55%).
Edition: 218
- 22 August, 2025
Aena (AENA SM) Spain
Industrials
Robert Crimes updates his model forecasts and reiterates his Buy rating on AENA, citing its unique Spanish airport monopoly, strong FCF profile and value-accretive long-term expansion. H1 results support €2.0bn+ FCF in 2025E, growing at a 4.2% CAGR through 2050E, despite significant expansionary capex. AENA plans to expand theoretical capacity by +50% to 520m pax by 2050 (Madrid +60% to >110m pax, Barcelona +70% to >95m pax). Leverage is low (1.3x ND/EBITDA) and dividends are expected to grow 5.7% CAGR. With +2.4% annual traffic growth and rising intercontinental passenger mix, Robert sees 60% upside to his TP of €39.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Top large cap picks for 2H25
Following a strong H1, AIR remains focused on companies that can continue gaining market share through exceptional management, innovation and cost discipline - all driving rising operating margins and FCF, even in challenging environments. The following names pass all 45 of AIR’s proprietary filters (3 layers of 15 valuation and quality criteria) and are expected to significantly outperform over the next 12 months: 1) Adidas - ranked No.1 in AIR’s quantitative system, with accelerating EBIT, margin gains and surging FCF. 2) Aena - best-in-class margins, strong traffic growth and a robust balance sheet. 3) Prysmian - a key player in energy transition and digital infrastructure with a record €40.3bn order book. AIR rates all three stocks as Strong Buys, with 50-100% upside potential.
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Fraport (FRA GR) Germany
Industrials
Near-term tariff rises at Frankfurt are insufficient to close the gap to its Allowed Reg. Return. Robert Crimes sees Aviation Returns (NOPAT/RAB) of only 3.1% in 2024E and 2.9% in 2025E, c.320bps below Insight’s WACC of 6.2%. In addition to insufficient tariff rises, there are 3 key factors to consider: 1) Weak traffic recovery (lowest of EU peers). 2) High wage rises above inflation (Frankfurt staff costs to rise c.€150m (+19%) in 2024-25E). 3) High expansionary capex. Robert has a Sell rating on the stock given the average upside of Insight’s Global Infrastructure coverage is significantly higher at nearly 100%. Buy rated peers include Aena (TP €369), ADP (TP €234) and Flughafen Zurich (TP CHF330).
Edition: 193
- 23 August, 2024
Aena (AENA SM) Spain
Industrials
Recently launched its first logistics real estate development project at Madrid as part of its Airport City concept in its Strategic Plan 2022-26. Robert Crimes values the group’s real estate at €3.1bn (>4x Sell Side consensus) - existing assets are valued at €1bn and the pipeline at €2.1bn (or €14/share) - mostly from developing buildings at Madrid and Barcelona in 2023-49E, ideal locations to capitalise on strong demand for logistics space, primarily driven by e-commerce. Robert raises his SOTP based TP from €321 to €337 (130% upside) and AENA moves up to 3rd (of 25) on his Stock Ranking System.
Edition: 163
- 23 June, 2023
Aena (AENA SM) Spain
Industrials
Robert Crimes remains very bullish re. prospects for global airports given the strong recovery in traffic from Covid, high lifetime FCF and a global weighted average IRR of 11.6% - his top pick is AENA, whose share price is down c.30% since Feb 2020. Robert expects 2019 traffic to be exceeded by 4% in 2024E and Equity FCF post all capex of €1.6bn in 2023E (same as 2019). Return on RAB of 6.4% to exceed Insight’s WACC of 6.0% in 2024E. Commercial growth is highly value accretive with >80% EBITDA margins and c.85% of terminal capex funded by decent returns on Aeronautical RAB. TP €302 (140% upside).
Edition: 150
- 09 December, 2022
Insight’s global Infrastructure stocks offer avg. upside of 78%
Industrials
Valuations attractive vs. history on SOTP discount, IRR-Ke, Recurring FCF yield and dividend yield - stock prices over discounting higher real bond yields / credit risk not a concern. Robert Crimes sees significantly higher upside in Europe (+104%) than Asia Pacific (+44%) and South America (+11%). Highest weighted average upside for Towers (+121%), where Robert prefers Cellnex (+143%). Second highest upside in Contractors (+98%) and Ferrovial (+158%) remains his top pick. Less upside in Airports (+79%) but European Airports (+112%) have strong potential, with Aena, ADP and FH Zurich all offering 85%+ upside.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022
Aena (AENA SM) Spain
Industrials
Recovery ahead of peers, expects strong traffic and FCF growth - Robert Crimes increases his TP to €296 (100%+ upside) vs. consensus at €155. Sell Side is too focused on Commercial reported financials (distorted by accounting MAG reversals), when it is better to analyse performance in simplified cash terms. Robert’s long-term forecasts show a recovery in traffic by 2024E, then +2.3% CAGR, equating to +79% in 2024-50E. Recurring FCF of €1.8bn in 2019 recovered in 2023E, then a consistent +1.6% CAGR in 2023-50E. Recurring FCF yield increases from 5.7% in 2022E to 8.5% in 2025E, attractive vs. Spanish 10YR bond yields. Dividend yield rises from 1.8% to 6.6% in 2025E.
Edition: 130
- 04 March, 2022
Insight’s Global Infrastructure Stocks Offer Massive Upside
Industrials
Strong recovery from Covid, high lifetime FCF & IRR.s intact - companies covered by Robert Crimes offer an average upside of 73%. Europe (+98%) leads the way, followed by Asia Pacific (+51%) and South America (+43%). Highest average upside for Towers (+98%); prefers Inwit (+130%) to Vantage Towers and Cellnex. Airports (+81%); top pick is Aena (+131%). Stock selection in Toll roads is crucial - favours PINFRA & Aleatica in Mexico, offset by no upside for CCR in Brazil. In Contractors, Robert's top pick (and his No.1 ranked stock) is Ferrovial (+143%).
Edition: 119
- 17 September, 2021