Affirm (AFRM)

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano sees the disparity in valuation between AFRM and Klarna as more of a downside risk for AFRM than an upside opportunity for KLAR; the intense competition in the BNPL marketplace is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth expectations and he believes that AFRM should lose some of its “scarcity value” as a near pure play on BNPL in view of KLAR’s listing. With regards to Victor’s recommendations on payments companies in general, he maintains Buy ratings on PagSeguro, Nexi and PayPal for their value credentials primarily and upgrades KakaoPay from Sell to Neutral, following its marked de-rating.

- 19 September, 2025

Ranking the winners and losers in Global Payments

Technology

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano introduces a proprietary payments scorecard, ranking companies based on weighted metrics including valuation, margins, EBITDA growth and valuation-to-growth. PagSeguro and Nexi remain top picks due to deep value characteristics and strong scorecard rankings. PayPal is upgraded to Buy, replacing Visa, supported by improved margins, stabilising net take rate and attractive valuation. Affirm is upgraded to Neutral, while KakaoPay is newly rated Sell. The stock has surged on stablecoin speculation, but Victor warns of underestimated regulatory risks, especially following Bank of Korea’s recent caution on digital assets.

- 11 July, 2025

Block (SQ)

Technology

Vermilion Research

The technicals suggest the rallies in SQ and Affirm are just getting going, according to analysts at Vermilion Research. Both stocks are emerging from 2-year bases with volume patterns that are consistent with institutional sponsorship; this is a huge reason why they believe now is the time to be buying. They see potential to make 100%+ price gains in the coming months / year(s), while the max stop loss would be 10-15% based on technical invalidation levels.

- 22 March, 2024

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2023

Oxford Analytica

The region faces a range of political, economic and security challenges. Many South-east Asian countries will be preoccupied with political transitions in the second half of 2023: Thailand is expected to see the formation of a new government following last month’s general election, while Cambodia will hold parliamentary polls and Indonesia will intensify preparations for the elections set to take place early next year. Regional players will meanwhile work hard to sustain robust economic growth and affirm ASEAN ‘centrality’.

- 23 June, 2023

Affirm (AFRM)

Technology

Blueshift Research

Has an appealing proposition for consumers in the emerging BNPL industry, but sellers are not seeing much differentiation among the leading competitors, according to Blueshift’s interviews with merchants, payment industry specialists and payment technology developers. Sources also revealed how the industry is ripe for consolidation (Amazon to acquire AFRM?); how BNPL will continue to grow in the US but won’t match the adoption rate internationally; as well as voicing concerns around credit risk and increased regulation.

- 04 March, 2022

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) vs. MoneyLion (ML)

Technology

AlphaSituations

The tale of two Fintech companies - ML is several steps ahead in becoming a fintech super app. Robert Sassoon argues that the substantial value premium at which AFRM is currently trading makes no sense given the potential headwinds from heavier regulation and increased competition likely to confront pure-play BNPL companies. A grossly undervalued ML (400% upside) and pricey AFRM (30% downside) offers a highly lucrative pair trade idea with potential to yield an outsized return in 2022.

- 07 January, 2022