Consumer Staples
The volume declines and market share losses from a large, financially sound, supermarket chain are unprecedented in the 20+ years Scott Mushkin has been researching the industry - while he finds no “smoking gun” around exactly why the market share losses are so severe, reduced promotions (industry-wide) and some store slippage will have had an impact. Given the current business challenges, it throws into question the amount of net synergies KR will realise following its merger with Albertsons. Furthermore, vendors generally shift support away from companies that show sustained market share declines. The situation is unsustainable. TP $36 (25% downside).
Edition: 156
- 17 March, 2023
Consumer Staples
Good decision to explore strategic alternatives - ACI's strong financial performance is not being reflected in its equity. R5’s research suggests that ACI’s market share gains have accelerated further since the company reported 3Q results in early Jan. Despite superior performance, an incredibly strong management team and a meaningfully improved B/S, the equity trades at what has normally been associated with distressed firms in the supermarket arena at 4.6x R5’s FY23 EBITDA estimates and a P/E of just under 9.0x FY23 EPS. TP $50 (60% upside).
Edition: 130
- 04 March, 2022
Something to Snack On: Three that Should Thrive
Consumer Staples
Walmart, Target, and Albertsons, roughed up by last month’s choppy market, are now building momentum and recent pullbacks present buying opportunities. WMT-Home Depot partnership shows a positive business trajectory. TGT is creating an unrivalled total experience allying with Levi's, Apple and Disney. ACI's company specific initiatives, including streamlining purchasing and growing its private brands, show the business is strong.
Edition: 121
- 15 October, 2021
Market Cap of Companies Over 10x Sales is Out of Control
The market’s greed for speculative tech stocks is creating fantastic opportunities for long-term investors - Kailash Concepts believe now is the time to be focusing on the cheapest stocks in the market - these companies generate FCF of 5%; trade at 1x sales; P/E ratio of 22x; ~10% operating margins and 3% dividend yield. In fact, they have far more sustainable business models and having grown revenues by 24% over the last three years offer growth at a reasonable price! Some of the top ranked S&P500 firms highlighted include Molina Healthcare, Albertsons, Allstate and Ford.
Edition: 119
- 17 September, 2021