Healthcare alpha generation
Healthcare
Channel Dynamics has built a strong record of HC alpha generation by leveraging deep channel checks with private company experts and providers. Over the past 12+ months, their calls have consistently delivered meaningful relative alpha from report release through earnings, ahead of major stock moves including: UnitedHealth (flagged negative MLR inflection and UNH exposure before disappointing earnings and stock collapse); DexCom (called negative inflection in DME performance before turning back positive on DME relationship improvements and G7 market share gains); Align (correctly predicted Q/Q shifts in clear aligner and capital equipment purchasing trends); Penumbra (called positive DVT market growth trends and PEN market share gains in DVT, PE and Neuro Segments); and Dentsply Sirona (flagged worsening product/vendor performance and further deterioration from tariff impacts).
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
Healthcare
Abacus' 40-page initiation report finds the market is too bearish - 2022 is an anomaly. ALGN's business model and competitive position have not been impaired. Downgrades were part of the pandemic dislocation and management’s over-optimism. ALGN’s near monopoly position unlikely to change (the D2C model has basically failed and Abacus cannot see any way for it to be revived). Forecasts earnings to grow at a 30% CAGR from 2022-25 driven by a recovery in revenue growth and operating margins. Forward P/E is below historical average and low relative to peers; sees ~80% upside over next couple of years (TP $514).
Edition: 142
- 19 August, 2022