EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Fully depreciated equipment in the Building Products industry

Industrials

Behind the Numbers

Among the 19 companies analysed by BTN, those with the biggest risk of overstated earnings from using fully depreciated equipment or unusually long depreciation lives compared to the industry include Allegion, A.O. Smith, Insteel Industries, Trane Technologies and Masco. Meanwhile, they see Simpson Manufacturing, Advanced Drainage Systems, AAON, Trex and Builders FirstSource as being positioned to start seeing lower depreciation expense and capital spending. These companies are already years into modernisation and expanding their equipment bases. Their depreciation has risen and been a headwind to earnings of late, but they may be about to see this level off and put them in a position of rising margins and FCF.

Edition: 202

- 10 January, 2025


Allegion (ALLE)

Industrials

Abacus Research

High quality compounder at an attractive valuation - ALLE consistently generates the highest operating margins (>20%) and ROIC (20%) in a market where the top-3 players have ~80% of the US market. Abacus forecast 20% EPS growth from 2021-23 driven by improving margins, increasing penetration of electronic locks and a cyclical bounce in non-residential spending. Inflation fears are overstated and Abacus do not consider Latch to be a long-term threat. A valuation gap has also opened vs. Assa Abloy which is not justified by fundamentals. 12-month TP $181 (30% upside).

Edition: 117

- 20 August, 2021