Industrials
AAL reported a disappointing Q1, with modest improvements in unit revenue and load factor offset by poor cost control (especially relative to Delta and United). Despite benefitting from lower fuel prices, AAL failed to retain related savings. Cash conversion deteriorated and over the last 12 months, adjusted OCF is ~33% below 2019 levels (the weakest among the Big Three). Leverage also remains substantially higher than peers. Reno Bianchi forecasts Q2 EBITDA of ~$1.6bn, below consensus estimates. Given increasing macro risk, he believes AAL's credit profile is looking increasingly fragile. Reno continues to recommend avoiding the group's equity and unsecured debt, while the current spread premium among AAL’s long-dated secured obligations is too tight. Investors should focus exclusively among some of the airline’s short-dated, well secured structures.
Edition: 210
- 02 May, 2025
Industrials
Cmind expects LUV is very likely to miss its Q2 earnings, scheduled for release on 27th July - their latest prediction shows that the probability of beating the consensus is 0.25. Comparing LUV against its peers (Delta Air lines, United Airlines and American Airlines) they find that the ratio Cash/Operating Profit of LUV exceeds 75 percentile and Receivables - Estimated Doubtful is below 25 percentile of the same metrics of its peers. In addition, linguistic signals indicate excessive CEO evasiveness, and CFO and analysts bullishness from earnings transcripts. Finally, LUV has missed its targets in the past two quarters.
Edition: 165
- 21 July, 2023
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American Airlines (AAL) - Losses still bigger than many realise. Earnings Distortions totalled $3.5bn (173% of GAAP earnings).
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - Growing Profits + Cheap Valuation = Very Attractive Rating. Core Earnings of $6.9bn > GAAP earnings of $4.4bn.
International Flavors & Fragrances - Why understated profits aren’t always a good investment.
In addition, material weaknesses in internal controls were identified at several stocks including CBRE Group, Coupang and SeaWorld.
Edition: 132
- 01 April, 2022