Short ideas deliver 100% hit rate in the first half of 2025
AIR delivered an exceptional 1H25, closing 20 out of 20 European Sell/Short ideas in profit, with an average return of +24.5% per idea. Standout trades included Stellantis (+56%), STMicroelectronics (+55%), Aston Martin (+54%), Remy Cointreau (+53%) and Swatch (+43%). Out of 28 Sell/Short ideas still in force (opened in the last 18 months), 20 are currently making gains. Notable winners include LEM Holding (+51%), B&M (+49%), Alten (+42%) and Mercedes-Benz (+32%). AIR continues to issue an average of 3 high-conviction short ideas per month, making them a must-follow provider for investors seeking consistent alpha from the short side.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
90% hit rate on Shorts, while Buy calls also continue to outperform
Since the beginning of 2024, AIR has published 41 Short ideas, 37 of which have generated absolute gains. Standout performers include B&M, LEM Holding, Remy Cointreau, STMicroelectronics, Stellantis and Valeo. In Q1 2025, AIR initiated 6 new Short positions, with LVMH leading the pack, and closed 6 positions, including a 54% gain on Aston Martin. On the long side, AIR’s Top 10 Large Cap Best Ideas returned +7.7% in Q1 this year, outperforming the Stoxx 600’s +5.2% gain. Since inception in 2012, the selection has outperformed the index by nearly 300%. Meanwhile, AIR’s Top 10 Mid Cap Best Ideas Selection delivered +17.3% in Q1, far exceeding the +4.3% return from the Stoxx Europe Mid 200 Index.
Edition: 209
- 18 April, 2025
UK Risk Rankings
Paul Hollingworth sifts through ~300 UK companies to ascertain their financial risk. He incorporates seven different Risk Models and scores companies by each model to come up with an aggregate Score. Investors should not be chasing high risk or "a dash for trash" (as we saw in Jan) but should combine classical valuation assessment with low risk opportunities. Companies featured in the top quartile of low risk include Renishaw, Rightmove, Sylvania Platinum, AG Barr, Rotork and Wilmington. Investors should eschew companies such as Wizz Air, Aston Martin, Mitchells & Butlers, Rolls Royce and Ocado. Let alone small caps such as Kromek, Plant Health or Pressure Technologies.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Former colleagues interviewed by Paragon unanimously believe new CEO Amedeo Felisa is a good fit for AML who can lay the foundation for a rebound in its profits and reputation - Felisa was “one of the most important men” in creating Ferrari’s success, developing high-performance cars while generating industry leading margins. He is described as a “tough, honest and demanding leader”, who is “fanatical” about quality. Felisa cares little for corporate hierarchy but readily defers to others on issues outside of his expertise. He “always achieves” financial targets.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022