EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Atlassian (TEAM)

Technology

Verbatim Advisory Group

According to Verbatim’s latest channel checks, 1Q24 sales trends are significantly stronger on a y/y basis. This strength stems from Cloud migration, ESM projects and Jira Work Management, while larger deal sizes are driving q/q trends. The 2Q24 outlook for TEAM is also stronger on both a y/y and q/q basis. Close rate continues to remain steady according to 100% of their respondents and the flow of new leads is mostly increasing. Also noteworthy, ServiceNow is losing market share to TEAM, but price increases are leading to competition from emerging vendors such as Monday.

Edition: 172

- 27 October, 2023


Atlassian (TEAM)

Technology

MYST Advisors

The presenter (at MYST’s latest TMT Idea Forum) views TEAM as a timely opportunity due to its nascent SaaS transition that he describes as “the most terminal value-accretive” he has ever seen. He models post-transition FCF of $20-25/share (vs. consensus at ~$10/share), but says this could prove conservative, as he notes that Autodesk and Adobe both saw FCF generation increase by ~5x over the course of their transitions. He also highlights a key misperception among investors, with many expecting just ~16% of the installed base to see a material repricing of 3-4x vs. his belief that 80% will reprice to ~8x (or more) pre-transition ARR. TP $550 (~230% upside).

Edition: 162

- 09 June, 2023


Atlassian (TEAM)

Technology

Verbatim Advisory Group

Q3 trends are strong as net new customer business grows - 100% of respondents to Verbatim’s latest channel checks tell them that they are meeting their internal sales targets. The outlook for Q4 is also positive due to ongoing price increases and a strong sales pipeline. FY23 is expected to be up significantly Y/Y (by 20% on average). TEAM continues to gain market share (particularly from ServiceNow) as they maintain best-of-breed products and customer experience. Respondents expect project management software growth to be dramatic over the next 12 months as a large push for the Jira line of products helps drive big licensing sales.

Edition: 159

- 28 April, 2023