EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Compass (CPG LN) & BAE Systems (BA/ LN)

Consumer Discretionary / Industrials

Willis Welby

Willis Welby looks at UK growth names (>$2.5bn M/Cap) that have not shared in the share price rises since Oct 26th. CPG has seen analyst downgrades despite a robust update during Nov, but looks like a very strong compounding story that is not expensive and makes great sense at current prices. However, it is BAE that really stands out. The defence contractor has seen upgrades to consensus Y2 EBIT over the last three months and more recently has announced more good news on orders. Relative to US peers that implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of <60 looks way too low. Other stocks discussed in their report include AstraZeneca and Games Workshop.

Edition: 176

- 22 December, 2023


Jet2 (JET2 LN) & BAE Systems (BA LN) UK

Consumer Discretionary & Industrials

Willis Welby

Both these stocks look seriously cheap and both have seen upgrades over recent results. Jet2 comes with very strong finances and a lot of market share growth. Of course, travel can be cyclical and lots of the cash is not really theirs, but Willis Welby’s adjusted implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is just 25, which is really low. BAE’s share price responded well before giving part of the gains up on the announcement of the Ball acquisition. Willis Welby considers BAE to be a first-rate international defence company and the expectations ratio of 57 is at a major discount to its largely US peers.

Edition: 168

- 01 September, 2023


European Defence: Paradigm shift

Agency Partners

€180bn bare minimum required to re-equip European armies to a standard necessary to provide credible deterrence against Russia - Agency Partners’ 31-page report explores this ‘rearmament crisis’ and which companies are best placed to benefit. Despite recent share price rises throughout the sector they still see a lot of valuation upside in European large caps. Preferred stocks include BAE Systems, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall. While European mid caps have fuller valuations, they offer much faster gearing to increased defence spending from short cycle businesses. Top picks include Saab and Babcock.

Edition: 131

- 18 March, 2022