EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

FTSE 100 Technical Review

Messels

Messels’ weekly Stocks & Sectors report highlights renewed strength in Aerospace and Banks, with selective improvement in Miners and long-term support levels being monitored for Media stocks. New Buys include Sainsbury's (breaking out of a two-year range and gains relative momentum) and HSBC (breaking out of a short-term range and renews outperformance). Entain, a Buy last week, is finding support above prior price and relative bases. Messels also closes their long position in Ashtead as it reaches potential price and relative resistance following a strong rally since Apr. Other notable moves include: Babcock renews price and relative uptrends; Fresnillo has broken resistance and made one-year price and relative highs; while RELX approaches long-term support. Messels’ FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio currently consists of 19 stocks.

Edition: 220

- 19 September, 2025


Babcock (BAB LN) UK

Industrials

ROCGA Research

BAB appears on ROCGA’s list of undervalued ideas - using their proprietary CFROI based DCF valuation tools, they identify companies on the spectrum ranging from undervalued to overvalued. This list can be easily modified to cover specific geographies, industries, M/Cap... ROCGA currently covers c.2000 companies across Europe and the US. More details on their systematic and interactive valuation tools can be found here. A trial can be arranged on request.

Edition: 171

- 13 October, 2023


Babcock (BAB LN) UK

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

A score of 33/60 is top quartile for Iron Blue, which suggests fertile ground for shorting. BAB’s turnaround is proving lengthy and challenging. Accounting red flags include still elevated one-off costs, further historic restatements, and ongoing working capital normalisation. New auditors have introduced a “control deficiencies” key audit matter. Underlying returns remain pressured with FY22 EBITDA margins -150bp yoy. Headline EBITA margins expanded 20-30bp yoy but only because of lower D&A following stripped out asset impairments. The introduction of cost inflation (vs. fixed price contracts) is an emerging principal risk / key source of estimate uncertainty.

Edition: 143

- 02 September, 2022


European Defence: Paradigm shift

Agency Partners

€180bn bare minimum required to re-equip European armies to a standard necessary to provide credible deterrence against Russia - Agency Partners’ 31-page report explores this ‘rearmament crisis’ and which companies are best placed to benefit. Despite recent share price rises throughout the sector they still see a lot of valuation upside in European large caps. Preferred stocks include BAE Systems, Leonardo, Lockheed Martin and Rheinmetall. While European mid caps have fuller valuations, they offer much faster gearing to increased defence spending from short cycle businesses. Top picks include Saab and Babcock.

Edition: 131

- 18 March, 2022