Banks vs. Tariffs
Financials
TriggerPoint Research is increasingly confident that the SX7P’s 54-month streak of uninterrupted outperformance is well and truly over as macro uncertainty mounts. While the impact of nascent tariff wars on inflation, interest rate policies, trade and by-country GDP is impossible to forecast accurately, one thing is certain: the outlook has dimmed significantly. TriggerPoint’s analysis draws on excerpts from ECB stress test publications to assess how changing macro conditions impact bank credit charges and earnings outlooks, while their report also explores how to approach bank valuation in an environment where earnings visibility disappears and capital return plans face growing uncertainty. Three banks are used as case studies: Barclays, HSBC and Santander.
Edition: 209
- 18 April, 2025
FTSE 100 Technical Review
Messels' weekly Stocks & Sectors report highlights continued improvement in Services, Media and Banks, while reducing exposure to Consumer sectors. New Buys include Ashtead (broken out of 2-year price and relative ranges) and Barclays (renews the uptrend and has broken out of 8-year price and relative ranges). They have also closed longs in Whitbread (lacks momentum in the short term), Imperial Brands (maintains the uptrend but is reaching the top of the relative range), Howden Joinery (lost momentum and developed short term price and relative tops) and Marks & Spencer (reaching medium term price and relative resistance). Following these changes, Messels’ FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio now consists of 16 stocks.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
Financials
Having turned bullish on the stock back in Oct 23 in a report titled, ‘The upside everyone is missing in European banks’, in his latest piece, Erik@YWR highlights the path to £3.00/share (+65%) and beyond. Key catalysts include: 1) Upgrades to earnings forecasts. Erik’s EPS estimates are significantly ahead of consensus at 38p (2024) and 44p (2025). 2) Rebound in investment banking revenues after a 2-year downturn. 3) UK driven profitable growth strategy. All of this leads to a more consistent business, with less volatility and higher ROE’s, which is why Venkat can stand up and promise to return £10bn in dividends and share buybacks through 2026.
Edition: 182
- 22 March, 2024