Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Iran’s potential threat to oil markets
Unsurprisingly, oil prices jumped in the aftermath of Israel’s strikes against Iran. Wolfang Munchau ponders over the reasonable worst-case scenario. One must consider the 3.3m b/d of exports that could be lost, although this will pale in comparison to Russia’s 9-10m b/d before war with Ukraine, not to mention that most of the oil goes to China and is relatively sanctions proof. Should Iranian oil export infrastructure be targeted by Israel, OPEC spare capacity (est. 5.3m b/d) could absorb the damage. However, should Iran try to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, this would potentially severely limit Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE’s ability to deliver oil to the world market. This would be extremely risky for Iran, with severe diplomatic repercussions with all Gulf states. The US is, so far, keeping its distance from the spat, but directly threatening global oil supplies could change that.
Edition: 213
- 13 June, 2025
InterDigital v. Disney litigation
Technology
MDC Financial Research’s Event-Driven Legal℠ service is monitoring InterDigital, Inc. v. The Walt Disney Company (Case #25-00895, C.D. Cal), where a Hearing on Disney’s Motion for a Preliminary Injunction seeking to block the enforcement of a potential Brazilian Injunction is scheduled to be held on May 30th. The case relates to InterDigital's assertion of its video coding/processing Patents against Disney. Disney's Counterclaims will also be argued at this Hearing. MDC will attend this and future proceedings to identify legal catalysts potentially material to InterDigital’s share price. Institutional investors can contact MDC for timely insights, court coverage, and risk assessment on this and other event-driven equity opportunities.
Edition: 212
- 30 May, 2025
A systematic approach to identifying potential earnings manipulators like SMCI
SMCI shares fell nearly 20% after the company delayed the filing of its annual report and Hindenburg Research alleged “fresh evidence of accounting manipulation”. Interestingly, SMCI features in KCR’s S&P 500 Earnings Manipulator list, which includes stocks in 1) the worst quintile based on academia’s PROBM formula and 2) the bottom 20% of KCR’s ranking methodology. Other companies flagged include Advanced Micro Devices, Tesla, and Xylem, with Block and Emerson Electric added last month. Over the past 14 years, KCR’s Research Short Portfolios have been valuable for spotting potential risk flags and generating short ideas. To access the return summary for these portfolios click here.
Edition: 194
- 06 September, 2024
Technology
The technicals suggest the rallies in SQ and Affirm are just getting going, according to analysts at Vermilion Research. Both stocks are emerging from 2-year bases with volume patterns that are consistent with institutional sponsorship; this is a huge reason why they believe now is the time to be buying. They see potential to make 100%+ price gains in the coming months / year(s), while the max stop loss would be 10-15% based on technical invalidation levels.
Edition: 182
- 22 March, 2024
Technology
The FTC drops the hammer as it announces that it will be suing NVDA (and SoftBank) to block the acquisition of Arm - this is a significantly stronger move than any other regulator has made so far and the scale of the remedies required could end up destroying the value of the deal for NVDA. The simplest solution to SoftBank’s ownership of Arm is to put it back where it found it on the LSE. The problem here is that this deal is now worth $80bn to SoftBank thanks to the blistering rally in NVDA’s share price. If Arm relists on the LSE (or even the Nasdaq), achieving a valuation of this magnitude will be almost impossible.
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021
NdPr demand to soar, providing investor opportunities
EV and wind turbine growth could see NdPr (neodymium and praseodymium) demand skyrocket from ~2,590t/pa to 220,000t/pa, according to Gaius King. Gaius forecasts NdPr shortages becoming acute far more quickly than anticipated. Only a fraction of planned rare earth element (REE) capacity will enter the market to meet the demand, with the first entrants building a monopolistic market that will block out other entrants. Opportunities are rife for investors as the Light REE sector morphs into the NdPr market, but you’ll have to be first through the door!
Edition: 120
- 01 October, 2021
Ethereum: The Greatest Trade
Things are setting up for what Raoul Pal believes will be the best six- to nine-month trade in the history of financial markets! Ethereum’s supply has fallen dramatically and its block sizes have become more variable. The network is massively outperforming Bitcoin’s at the same number of addresses. This supply shock combined with exponential demand means the set-up right now is superior to Bitcoin’s in March 2020; make sure you have enough ETH, the rocket ship has taken off and you are not long enough.
Edition: 116
- 06 August, 2021