Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Technology
SPR’s latest channel checks indicate that large deals are finally progressing after previous delays as enterprises were still evaluating their alternatives and negotiating with Broadcom. However, some channels criticise NTNX for its rigid pricing strategy, suggesting the firm should adopt a more aggressive sales approach like Pure Storage. As expected the Dell / NTNX partnership continues to grow and SPR also believes NTNX is making progress on enhancing its Acropolis Hypervisor (ACH), that some estimated previously had ~80% of the functionality of VMware ESX. Enhancements to ACH will make it easier for NTNX to replace VMware, especially in complex operating environments.
Edition: 206
- 07 March, 2025
AI driven 10Q / 10K text analysis
Since there are always reasons when companies change the wording in their financial filings, being alerted to these changes allows investors to realise potential risk factors and opportunities before they are reflected in the market, ideal for idea generation and portfolio monitoring. Recent alerts include: 1) Broadcom - VMware concerns re. the loss of “significant” customers. 2) Avnet - more benign competitive environment. 3) Guidewire Software - may need to reduce prices or change pricing model. 4) Hewlett Packard Enterprise - more positive on near term growth.
Edition: 196
- 04 October, 2024
AI driven 10Q / 10K text analysis
Since there are always reasons when companies change the wording in their financial filings, being alerted to these changes allows investors to realise potential risk factors and opportunities before they are reflected in the market, ideal for idea generation and portfolio monitoring. Recent alerts include: 1) Broadcom - considering a dividend cut? 2) Costco - worldwide renewal rate may be adversely impacted. 3) Eagle Materials - takeover target? Customer consolidation concerns; long term financing needs. 4) Haemonetics - material reduction in per unit pricing by its largest customers. 5) Intuit - rethinking the trajectory of service revenue?
Edition: 191
- 26 July, 2024
Technology
Sales Pulse continue to pick up more positive views of the tailwinds for Nutanix and examples of deals that are driven by Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware however, channels are quick to state that the move from VMware is challenging, at least for large users. In Nutanix upcoming report we expect to see more evidence of growth from the Broadcom/VMware acquisition as well as the other catalyst that we have discussed in recent notes (increase in partnerships including Cisco, Dell and additional VARs), but rapid acceleration seems unlikely. Many speakers at Nutanix’ Next Conference in Barcelona discussed their move from VMware to Nutanix.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
Technology
Summit believe the expanding SAM in the AI custom-ASIC and networking markets can drive further financial outperformance in 2H24. Their industry checks also indicate that the cyclical downturn in the carrier and enterprise end markets is now behind us. Summit believes the enterprise and broadband end markets will recover in 2025, driven by the upcoming new product cycle. They also see AVGO benefitting from a new product cycle for AI-related networking ICs and custom ASIC accelerators in 2025. AVGO remains well-positioned to outperform its peer group through 1H25.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
SOXX starting another leg higher
Technology
After a 17% pullback from the March high the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is emerging from a consolidation phase and about to start another bullish leg higher. Guy Cerundolo scored the constituents of the SOXX and found 53% of the stocks with a bullish multi-factor model score. His top five scoring stocks are: Nvidia, Broadcom, KLA Corp, Applied Materials and Monolithic Power Systems. A full listing and chart review of the constituents is available on request.
Edition: 186
- 17 May, 2024
Broadcom's uplift in pricing shocks VMware users
Technology
SPR provides recent field feedback on AVGO’s actions, users reactions and vendors who are benefitting. While many acquisitions do not produce the increases in revenue and cost synergies that were promised, based upon AVGO’s aggressive approach, SPR expects it will immediately deliver strong results for both metrics. Despite the disruption and animosity it is creating, SPR is picking up many examples of end users who are paying much more to AVGO then they were prior to this acquisition (price hikes of 100-1000% have been reported). These end users are locked into some or all the VMware products. The cost of switching is very high and, in some cases, will take years. Other vendors discussed include Nutanix, IBM Red Hat and HashiCorp.
Edition: 183
- 05 April, 2024
Technology
The must-have name in the AI space - KC Rajkumar sees MU rivalling AMD’s market cap in the next 12-18 months. As KC predicted, MU blew away investor expectations, not merely by beating and raising quarterly numbers, but by providing a qualitative outlook for revenue / margins into Cy24 and Cy25 - unimaginably impressive for what is supposed to be a cyclical business. Not even Nvidia has been able provide a two-year outlook. Agnostic to AI chip suppliers, and increasingly a pure-play in AI, renders MU more attractive, at this stage in the investment cycle, to the likes of NVDA, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell.
Edition: 182
- 22 March, 2024
Tech Trends: Key themes and questions for 2024
Technology
Areas of focus for Sales Pulse in the year ahead will include: 1) Cybersecurity - changing end user priorities and competitive dynamics. 2) UC/CC/CP - will a reduction in seat count negate increased ARPU from AI features? How will continued M&A impact this market? 3) Vendors benefitting from the rapid growth in DevOps / DevSecOps. 4) Gap in orders in 1H24 for networking market as end users digest backlog and we await ramp of next generation. 5) Broadcom acquisition of VMware driving end users to look at alternatives, to the benefit of IBM Red Hat and Nutanix. 6) Ramp of funding for Broadband Infrastructure. 7) Impact of CSP Marketplaces on Distributors and VARs.
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
A complete breakdown of Google's Gemini AI Model
Technology
AceCamp recently interviewed a senior expert in the field of deep learning to discuss several questions including: 1) What is the architecture of the Gemini model? How does it compare to GPT-4? 2) When will virtual personal assistants or agents become a reality? 3) How to interpret rumours suggesting Google's next-generation TPU will not collaborate with Broadcom. 4) What is Google's plan for the penetration rate of AI search? How much does it cost, on average, to perform a query using TPU-based search? 5) What is the integration of SGE and traditional recommendation systems, including the processes involved? In which aspect does Google have an advantage?
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023
Connectivity, speed & scale combine to blow up IT as we know it
Technology
In John Harrington’s latest Tech Trends report, he looks at several factors that have combined to change IT development and sales dynamics. These include how the accelerating deployment of speedier wired and wireless connectivity to the cloud, very fast computing platforms being built at scale within the clouds, the accelerating development of quantum computing as a viable commercial business, and the development of serious AI capabilities are affecting the global digital landscape. As IT increasingly transitions from in-house networking to the cloud, some new areas of IT will benefit, while others face an uncertain future.
Positive: Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Broadcom, Ciena, Dycom, Intel, IonQ, Microsoft, Nvidia, Rigetti.
Negative: C3.ai, Cisco, Dell, Qualcomm, Salesforce.
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
China contagion has spread to the US as IPR’s carrier, retail, and supplier checks indicate iPhone 14 sell-through continues to soften, coming in below expected demand for Apr. IPR believes AAPL’s planned test equipment purchases from Keysight, LitePoint and Anritsu were cancelled or delayed, suggesting slower production looking into 2H23. RF component purchases from Qualcomm, Cirrus, Broadcom, Skyworks and Qorvo have been trimmed, reflecting weakening demand. AAPL's Q3 hardware sales typically drop about -9% Q/Q, but IPR believes iPhone 14 could see declines closer to -20%. The iPhone 15 could also prove disappointing.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
IPR’s industry checks indicate a recent significant change in AAPL procurement - order cuts have been made across the board, including iPhones, Macs, iPads, Watches, and accessories. It is likely to take some time for supply and demand to normalise causing problems for suppliers in the near term. In a separate note, IPR also discusses the recent Bloomberg report re. AAPL's plans to replace Qualcomm and Broadcom iPhone chips with in-house solutions. IPR believes this is just the first round of a negotiation dance between Tim Cook and Hock Tan, that will ultimately lead to another LTSA.
Edition: 152
- 20 January, 2023
VMware (VMW) & Broadcom (AVGO)
Technology
European Commission officials appear to be examining whether AVGO’s proposed takeover of VMW will harm rival component manufacturers who rely on VMW’s software to test their products, a source told CTFN. The EC’s detailed questionnaires are probing what type of information customers require from VMW, as well as how easily manufacturers can switch away from its products. The EC’s questions appear designed to test a theory of harm that AVGO might have an incentive to reduce or delay information shared by VMW with AVGO’s rivals involved in the production of network-interface cards and host bus adapters.
Click here for the full story.
Edition: 150
- 09 December, 2022
Activision (ATVI), Black Knight (BKI), VMware (VMW)
CTFN provides in-depth news on mergers, event-driven situations and major corporate developments. The news service, in conjunction with their PressRisk platform, delivers content and resources that increase the value and efficiency of their readers’ research efforts. Recent coverage includes:
Activision - The state of play meeting with the EC for Microsoft’s acquisition of ATVI was 21st Oct. MSFT can offer Phase I remedies by 28th Oct.
Black Knight - The FTC sought a declaration from a vendor in the loan origination space as part of its review of Intercontinental Exchange’s purchase of BKI.
VMware - Market power in virtualisation software likely to take centre stage in EC’s examination of Broadcom merger.
Click here to access the three news stories.
Edition: 147
- 28 October, 2022
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
The party is just getting started - MRVL is the best semiconductor idea for 2022. While there are many great companies to choose from, MRVL stands out as the top semi supplier in terms of multi-year growth prospects. Since Matt Murphy took the reins the company has made several great acquisitions, pulled off the divesture of the decade (Wireless to NXP Semiconductors for $1.8bn), and is poised to take on Broadcom as the dominant communications semiconductor provider focused on the datacenter.
Edition: 120
- 01 October, 2021
China Handset Semi Checks
Technology
Westlake's report includes detailed analysis and data on semi shortages, handsets and components inventory and lead times - Qualcomm, MediaTek, Skyworks, Qorvo and Broadcom saw very strong pricing and better-than-guided 1Q demand at Chinese OEMs. Their OEM contacts also observed lower phone inventory in 1Q vs. 4Q, with some indicating 6-7% inventory-to-sales ratio (normal level is 10-12%). Based on fab wafer sizes and technology nodes, the most severe shortages were seen in basebands / SoCs, MCUs, CIS sensors, display ICs and PMICs.
Edition: 109
- 30 April, 2021