Special Sits Idea Forum

MYST Advisors

MYST’s latest buyside event saw a large group of investors offer a diverse set of ideas spanning various sectors / themes. Stocks highlighted include:

Bayer (BAYN GR) - New management advancing turnaround as litigation resolution approaches. TP €40 (65% upside).
CRH (CRH) - Increased pricing power + Ukraine rebuild opportunity to narrow valuation gap vs. peers. TP $135 (35% upside).
NFI (NFI CN) - Earnings / margins to rebound sharply as production issues ease. TP C$40 (200% upside).
Paramount Global (PARA) - Pending deal approval to trigger “structural bid” from Arbs while streaming business inflects. TP $15 (30% upside).
Parkland (PKI CN) - Substantial SOTP upside amid ongoing strategic alternatives process. TP C$54 (45% upside).

- 21 March, 2025

Industrials Idea Forum

Industrials

MYST Advisors

Given the market volatility and uncertainty, it was not surprising that MYST’s Industrials experts at their latest Buyside event, focused on sectors with good visibility and tailwinds, such as Aerospace and Power, in addition to inexpensive stocks and cyclical recoveries. Highlights include:

Allegiant Travel Co. (ALGT) - Simplified story & substantial LT earnings power upon completion of hotel sale. TP $225 (160% upside).
CRH (CRH) - Comically cheap vs. peers & fast-approaching Index inclusion catalyst. TP $150 (40% upside).
Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) - Transformational pivot from legacy oilfield services to DC power generation. TP $52 (75% upside).
VSE Corp (VSEC) - Under-the-radar high-growth Aerospace aftermarket pureplay. TP $150 (45% upside).

- 21 February, 2025

Short Attacks: Carvana (CVNA) & FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Forensic Alpha

Forensic Alpha’s analysis finds an overlap of several issues highlighted in Hindenburg Research’s meaty report on CVNA “A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages” - in particular related-party transactions with DriveTime and off-balance sheet risk. Commenting on Muddy Waters' new short report on FTAI, they note that using transfers to inflate profits within a “prize division” is a common shenanigan - Forensic Alpha recently raised similar concerns around CRH and Volkswagen. Their own analysis of FTAI classifies the stock as “High Risk”.

- 24 January, 2025

SigmaRoc (SRC LN) UK

Materials

MYST Advisors

SRC was one of the stocks highlighted at MYST’s Top Post-Election Ideas Forum - Trump’s victory is expected to accelerate a potential resolution of the war in Ukraine and the recent closure of SRC’s acquisition of CRH’s Polish lime operations positions the company as a “stealth beneficiary” of reconstruction efforts. The stock trades at just ~5x FY25 EBITDA with a ~13% FCF Yield, a substantial discount to US peers including Martin Marietta, Vulcan Materials and Summit Materials. Notably, SRC's closest comp by size, US Lime & Minerals, trades at ~28x EBITDA. Presenter’s 2-year TP is £1.54 (95% upside), but he sees potential for a 3-to-4-bagger over time.

- 29 November, 2024

SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

Cerundolo Investment Research

Guy Cerundolo provides a basket of long ideas in Europe. These stocks have good and improving multi-factor model scores. In addition to SAP (see chart) he also highlights companies including ASM International, Assa Abloy, CRH, Ferrovial, Philips, Rolls-Royce and Tesco.

- 09 August, 2024

CRH (CRH)

Materials

Thompson Research Group

Shareholders vote to shift primary listing to the US as management seeks to capitalise on a golden era for construction - TRG is the first US analyst firm to cover CRH and their initiation report focuses on why the building materials firm is ideally placed to benefit from key secular trends including 1) reshoring / near shoring; 2) US population shift to “smile states”; 3) increased environmental investment; and 4) govt financial support. ~11% EBITDA CAGR since FY13 and CRH expects to generate $30bn in financial capacity over the next five years (vs. $20bn from FY17-21). With ~75% of EBITDA focused on the America’s market, TRG views CRH as a sleeping giant. 12-month TP $86 (60% upside).

- 23 June, 2023