EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Air Arabia (AIRARABI UH) United Arab Emirates

Industrials

AlphaMena

Solid passenger demand, disciplined cost control and strategic expansion underpin a positive outlook for Air Arabia. A cornerstone of its growth strategy is the recent launch of a new low-cost carrier in Dammam, aligning with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 by enhancing regional connectivity and diversifying travel hubs. Strategic network growth and continuous fleet modernisation have strengthened efficiency and broadened reach. Revenues are forecast to grow at a ~6.7% CAGR through 2027, with EBITDA margins increasing to ~29.4%. The carrier benefits from strong and consistent cash flow, while a strengthened balance sheet has enabled it to deliver an attractive dividend yield above 7%, making Air Arabia compelling for income-focused investors.

Edition: 220

- 19 September, 2025


Lennox International (LII)

Industrials

Northcoast Research

While LII's management has done a stellar job righting the ship over the past few years, Northcoast balances this view with their dour outlook for the North American residential HVAC market in the intermediate term, which is c.70% of the group's business. In their 36-page industry initiation report titled ‘Hot Air and Cold Realities’, they argue that while market participants appreciate the unit volume headwinds, they do not appreciate the pricing headwinds given the potential for intensifying competitive dynamics. As such, Northcoast initiates coverage of LII with a Sell rating and TP of $475 (30% downside). Other stocks covered include Carrier Global, Comfort Systems and Trane Technologies.

Edition: 200

- 29 November, 2024


Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Technology

Summit Insights Group

Summit believe the expanding SAM in the AI custom-ASIC and networking markets can drive further financial outperformance in 2H24. Their industry checks also indicate that the cyclical downturn in the carrier and enterprise end markets is now behind us. Summit believes the enterprise and broadband end markets will recover in 2025, driven by the upcoming new product cycle. They also see AVGO benefitting from a new product cycle for AI-related networking ICs and custom ASIC accelerators in 2025. AVGO remains well-positioned to outperform its peer group through 1H25.

Edition: 188

- 14 June, 2024


SK Hynix (000660 KS), Wiwynn (6669 TT), Carrier (CARR US) US

Technology / Industrials

Entext

Sean Maher takes a 110% profit on Japan's Advantest in his semi basket after the Nvidia inspired surge, but still thinks SK Hynix remains undervalued and the key high bandwidth memory play as AI inference explodes. Sean has added Taiwan’s server maker Wiwynn to his networking basket as a key play on booming demand through end decade for its lower power consumption / heat generation technologies in AI server clusters. Climate change and the energy transition also remain key themes, driving secular AC and heat pump demand; Carrier has been added to his transition basket on its M&A reinvention as a HVAC / heat pump pure play.

Edition: 162

- 09 June, 2023


Apple (AAPL)

Technology

Inflection Point Research, LLC

China contagion has spread to the US as IPR’s carrier, retail, and supplier checks indicate iPhone 14 sell-through continues to soften, coming in below expected demand for Apr. IPR believes AAPL’s planned test equipment purchases from Keysight, LitePoint and Anritsu were cancelled or delayed, suggesting slower production looking into 2H23. RF component purchases from Qualcomm, Cirrus, Broadcom, Skyworks and Qorvo have been trimmed, reflecting weakening demand. AAPL's Q3 hardware sales typically drop about -9% Q/Q, but IPR believes iPhone 14 could see declines closer to -20%. The iPhone 15 could also prove disappointing.

Edition: 161

- 26 May, 2023


Apple (AAPL)

Technology

Inflection Point Research, LLC

Could report an in-line Mar quarter, but IPR expects AAPL to guide down as it faces headwinds on softening demand across multiple product lines - IPR’s US carrier store checks suggest iPhone 14 inventories increased in Feb / Mar. While China iPhone sell-through checks suggest ~10% growth for the quarter, the tech giant could find recent improvement difficult to sustain on normalising demand post-reopening. Checks on Macs are consistent with last quarter, showing continued weakness with no end in sight. Checks with Apple watches, Air Pods, and other accessories paint a grimmer picture of forecasts down up to 50% Y/Y, indicating significant inventory build due to very weak end markets.

Edition: 158

- 14 April, 2023


Carrier Global (CARR)

Industrials

New Constructs

Street Earnings are higher than New Construct’s Core Earnings for 339 stocks in the S&P 500 with 186 companies overstating EPS by >10%. One of the worst offenders is CARR, where the difference between Street Earnings and Core Earnings is $1.76/share, or 76% of Street Earnings. The company’s GAAP Earnings Distortion is even higher at $3.54/share. CARR’s Stock Rating is Very Unattractive, largely due to its low ROIC of 4% and the expensive valuation of its stock. Despite trading at $45/share CARR has an EBV, or no-growth value, of -$16/share. Low ROIC and an expensive valuation also land CARR in New Construct’s Most Dangerous Stocks Model Portfolio.

Edition: 157

- 31 March, 2023