Outside of AI, why invest in the US?

View from the Peak

US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.

- 19 September, 2025

Caterpillar (CAT)

Industrials

Two Rivers Analytics

CAT ranks among Two Rivers’ top short ideas within its Declining Business Model framework. Despite deteriorating fundamentals, the stock trades at historically high multiples - over 20x 2025 earnings. Sales have declined for multiple quarters (-9.8% in Q1), estimate revisions remain deeply negative and margins are rolling over from peak levels. Working capital is rising. Finished goods are slowing. Forecasts project cash balances to dwindle on large maturity payments leaving the company with a negative cash position without refinancings. At the last earnings release, CAT missed on the sales, EBITDA and earnings lines.

- 11 July, 2025

Which stocks >$100bn m/cap are buys now?

Trivariate Research

With investors searching for value in the current market sell-off and likely looking to buy names among the safer, larger cap universe, Trivariate has assessed the performance of several metrics within the stocks >$100bn m/cap to see if they could systematically pick winners from losers. The best performing signal over the last 10 years, was buying the companies in the top third of forecasted revenue growth, while the second best was buying the one-third of companies with the lowest short interest. The worst performing signals were those in the highest third of leverage and stock volatility (distance-to-default) and those with the worst third of downward earnings revisions. Current long ideas from Trivariate’s $100bn Club Framework include all the Mag 7 (except Tesla), as well as Eli Lilly, Visa and UnitedHealth. Shorts include Goldman Sachs, PepsiCo, Caterpillar and Starbucks.

- 21 March, 2025

Which fuel cell companies are best positioned to benefit from the Infrastructure Bill?

Blueshift Research

Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems to benefit the most from The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act commitment to hydrogen. PLUG was cited for its industry leadership, strong management, innovation and how its recent acquisitions have expanded its offering across the hydrogen economy. BLDP is well-funded and considered the “big dog” in transportation. Other companies highlighted in Blueshift’s 31-page report include Air Liquide, Anglo American, Caterpillar, Cummins, Hyundai, ITM and Linde. Traditional oil & gas companies will also have a role to play, while Hyzon Motors and Nikola could be M&A targets.

- 01 October, 2021