Cellnex (CLNX SM) Spain
Industrials
Robert Crimes views CLNX’s sharp de-rating since 2022 as highly unjustified. Prop. EBITDaL has grown 36%, from €1.8bn in 2022 to €2.4bn in 2025E, yet the share price has declined 26%, massively underperforming the Eurofirst 300. The stock trades on 2025E EV/EBITDaL of 16.7x, a 29% discount to the 22.9x average of its recent disposals. Robert believes CLNX could attract a buyout from a large consortium, such as American Tower, as it offers a non-replicable pan-European network, ranking first or second in eight of the ten countries it operates in. His TP of €69, implies ~135% upside, with CLNX ranking 3rd of 23 on Insight’s Stock Ranking System.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Global Infrastructure stocks offer massive upside
Robert Crimes remains bullish on the Infrastructure sector, citing strong long-term traffic growth, resilient IRRs (averaging 11.3%, +290bps above Insight’s 8.5% Ke) and deep value in listed equities trading ~40% below NAV, despite private market transactions averaging just -3% below NAV over the past decade. The sector shows a weighted average upside of +78%, with notably higher upside in North America (+102%) and Europe (+73%) versus South America (-5%). Credit risk is not a concern, as leverage is manageable, bond yields have plateaued after a sharp 2022 rise and most debt remains fixed at low rates with long durations. Robert's top picks are Ferrovial, Canadian National Railway and Cellnex, each offering over +110% upside.
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
Cellnex (CLNX SM) Spain
Real Estate
CLNX announces a share buyback programme of up to €800m for 2025 - much larger (and earlier) than Robert Crimes had been expecting. Given his target price is more than 140% above the current share price, buybacks are hugely value accretive. He sees potential for buybacks of €1.3bn p.a. for 4 more years after 2025, with total value accretion of €12 a share over 5 years, equal to a substantial 40% of the share price. CLNX is 3rd of 24 on Insight’s Stock Ranking System and their preferred pick in Telecom Infrastructure, ahead of Inwit (ranked 7th).
Edition: 203
- 24 January, 2025
Infrastructure stocks offer huge upside
Industrials
The companies covered by Insight offer an average upside of 90%. Their top 3 names are: 1) Ferrovial (TP €82) - US Managed Lanes EBITDA growing rapidly on good transactions growth and excellent toll increases. 2) Canadian National Railway (TP C$354) - mostly unregulated pricing and limited cyclicality of EBITDA. Strong recurring FCF growth, High ROIC and shareholder remuneration to grow at >6% CAGR to 2050E. 3) Cellnex (TP €75) - pan European tower platform with strong market positions and inflation linked contracts. Paused acquisition strategy will see rapid deleverage, stronger grade credit rating, then enhanced shareholder remuneration.
Edition: 197
- 18 October, 2024
Real Estate
“New Cellnex” was defined at its Q3 2022 results, with a sharp focus on visible organic revenue growth, efficiency gains from rising tenancy and lease reductions, reducing capex and higher minimum dividends from 2025E. The dividend yield rises to 2.7% in 2027E and 16.9% in 2031E. Cellnex TP rises from €74 to €76 and is rated no.2 of their 24 Global Infrastructure stocks, having had the greatest change in corporate strategy in recent years. Cellnex projects an annual revenue growth of 5.4% for 2023-30E and 3.2% for 2030-40E from secure sources. With €4.1bn BTS capex winding down post-2027, returns and efficiency will be boosted. Strategic disposals will create value by narrowing valuation gaps. FCF is expected to rise, reducing debt and increasing dividends, with significant share buybacks planned.
Edition: 188
- 14 June, 2024
EU Towers: A rising risk from land aggregators
Real Estate
Cellnex and Inwit have recently pivoted towards buying more land. Why? In part because they still see a good opportunity to deploy capital attractively, but New Street believes this is also driven by a defensive angle against a gradually rising role of land aggregators in Europe. In this note, they explore in more detail for the first time the role of land aggregators in Europe and how it might affect tower companies in future. They also update some of their broader valuation parameters for these names too. They remain Neutral on the EU tower space at current valuations.
Edition: 185
- 03 May, 2024
Transactions indicate high upside for listed Infrastructure
Industrials
Robert Crimes reviews 138 global infrastructure deals that took place between 2015 and 2023, focusing on the 38 where he had a DCF based NAV. These transactions averaged a -3% discount to Insight NAV but listed valuations trade at a -35% discount. Share prices would need to rise c.50% to close the valuation gap. Robert expects deal flow to continue driven by undervaluation of listed corporates, resilient indexed linked FCF growth and reducing COC. Insight's key Buys to arbitrage from listed to unlisted are Ferrovial, Getlink, Inwit and Cellnex.
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
Cellnex (CLNX SM) Spain
Industrials
Robert Crimes expects CLNX's sharper focus on organic revenue growth, efficiency gains from a rising tenancy ratio and lease reductions to lead to a S&P IG credit rating in late 2024, then high DPS growth from 2025. The dividend yield reaches 3.5% in 2027 and 12.2% in 2028, the latter when capex is half that of 2023 and Robert assumes all equity FCF is distributed. In addition to his detailed long-term model forecasts, Robert's report also includes suggested key action points for the new CEO including improving divisional disclosure and selling the Broadcasting division. TP €85 (135% upside).
Edition: 166
- 04 August, 2023
Cellnex (CLNX SM) Spain
Industrials
Focus on organic growth opens a new chapter in the equity story of CLNX - Alex Dwek believes the telecom giant is well positioned to benefit from its strong position within the European 5G ecosystem. Now that BTS and expansion capex are being reduced, organic growth will allow for CLNX’s tenancy ratio to increase (from 1.36x) and be more in line with peers such as Inwit (2.16x) and Vantage Towers (1.45x). Shorter-term catalysts such as the appointment of a new CEO (Marco Patuano), a significant deleveraging (from 6.5x net debt/EBITDA) and a strong cash flow generation, as well as reaching investment grade should also support the fundamentals. TP €56 (50% upside).
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Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Canadian National Railway (CNR CN) Canada
Industrials
Reliable demand, strong unregulated pricing, high capital barriers and excellent returns - Robert Crimes initiates coverage with a Buy rating and TP of C$360 (100%+ upside). Insight’s key value added vs. The Street is application of their Global Infrastructure specific valuation framework focused on DCF and IRR, their assessment of long-term volumes, pricing and FCFs and their ability to rate CNR vs. the other Global Infrastructure stocks in their universe, rather than other North American transportation stocks. CNR enters at 4th of 24 on the Insight Stock Ranking System, after Ferrovial, Cellnex and Getlink.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023
Insight’s global Infrastructure stocks offer avg. upside of 78%
Industrials
Valuations attractive vs. history on SOTP discount, IRR-Ke, Recurring FCF yield and dividend yield - stock prices over discounting higher real bond yields / credit risk not a concern. Robert Crimes sees significantly higher upside in Europe (+104%) than Asia Pacific (+44%) and South America (+11%). Highest weighted average upside for Towers (+121%), where Robert prefers Cellnex (+143%). Second highest upside in Contractors (+98%) and Ferrovial (+158%) remains his top pick. Less upside in Airports (+79%) but European Airports (+112%) have strong potential, with Aena, ADP and FH Zurich all offering 85%+ upside.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022
Cellnex (CLNX SM) Spain
Communications
Often finds itself at the top of Forensic Alpha’s rankings for aggressive accounting and this year is no exception with several new flags appearing following the publication of its annual report - the first thing that looks immediately odd is the sharp rise in trade receivables. A 45% increase YoY in the DSO, leaves it well outside of its historical range. Furthermore, while the receivables have been rising, the provision against those receivables has been falling. There is also a pattern of creating reserves as a result of acquisitions, then releasing excess provisions into income statement in future years. This pattern has strong echoes with what WorldCom did in the early 2000s.
Edition: 131
- 18 March, 2022
Entering the end game of 3 independent TowerCos in Europe
Industrials
Robert Crimes’ 16-page report details how the European Towers market is to undergo a final phase of consolidation with several large transactions resulting in 3 dominant TowerCos - Cellnex, Vantage Towers and American Tower Europe. He notes that it is significantly more efficient for MNOs to share passive infrastructure while Tower transaction valuations have recently risen allowing MNOs to generate large capital releases to fund investment in 5G and de-lever balance sheets (potential to monetise a further €85bn of Tower assets in Europe). Robert’s preferred stock is Cellnex (well placed to continue to grow acquisitively, raise tenancy and returns); TP €106 (+145%).
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
Insight’s Global Infrastructure Stocks Offer Massive Upside
Industrials
Strong recovery from Covid, high lifetime FCF & IRR.s intact - companies covered by Robert Crimes offer an average upside of 73%. Europe (+98%) leads the way, followed by Asia Pacific (+51%) and South America (+43%). Highest average upside for Towers (+98%); prefers Inwit (+130%) to Vantage Towers and Cellnex. Airports (+81%); top pick is Aena (+131%). Stock selection in Toll roads is crucial - favours PINFRA & Aleatica in Mexico, offset by no upside for CCR in Brazil. In Contractors, Robert's top pick (and his No.1 ranked stock) is Ferrovial (+143%).
Edition: 119
- 17 September, 2021