Outside of AI, why invest in the US?
US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
The security infrastructure enabling the AI revolution
Technology
Akamai and CyberArk are showing strong momentum in developer interest, according to AnteData’s coding activity data. Repositories related to the two companies’ software platforms are frequently forked and starred - clear signals of rising popularity and adoption among developers. This surge aligns with growing Google search interest and reflects their central role in securing the infrastructure that powers the AI boom. In general, AnteData’s coding activity shows that security companies focused on protecting communication layers - like AKAM, Cloudflare and CYBR - are outperforming those focused purely on asset protection, such as Tenable or CrowdStrike. Evidently, in this new wave of Machine-to-Machine communication, speed, security and connectivity matter more than ever.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
IT Survey: Robust spend, GenAI boom, staffing cuts
Technology
Rosenblatt’s July survey of 100+ senior IT managers reveals a surprisingly robust IT spending outlook, with two-thirds of budgets being revised higher since the start of 2025, despite macro concerns. GenAI is the top investment priority, with 60% increasing spend and nearly 70% expecting a material organisational impact. Over 75% expect developer staffing cuts of 10%+. Cybersecurity remains a defensive spending priority with investment flowing towards securing modern, distributed environments (Cloud, SASE/SSE) and data itself - benefitting CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Fortinet. AWS fared much better, ranking first in "cloud service provider best positioned in AI", with 28% (vs. 16% in Dec 24), surpassing Google and Microsoft. Infrastructure names like Snowflake, Rubrik and MongoDB are also well-positioned amid data estate modernisation.
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Channel Chatter: Regional Security VAR, ESX Conference, BEAD
Technology
SPR’s recent channel conversations highlight growing traction for emerging vendors like Onum and Cribl, which optimise SIEM data flow and reduce Splunk renewal costs. CrowdStrike remains a standout with strong SIEM growth and aggressive sales execution, though channel favouritism limits broader access. Cloudflare, despite a strong product, struggles with channel inefficiencies, while Fortinet is gaining share in select regions but not winning new logos with Lacework. Cisco’s security momentum may be challenged by the departure of Gary Steele. Meanwhile, BEAD funding delays and policy shifts are hurting traditional fibre and “turf” vendors, as fixed wireless and satellite gain favour. At ESX, Napco remains a solid player, but growth has normalised post-3G sunset.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Technology
CRWD moves from a ‘5’ to Forensic Alpha’s highest risk rating of ‘10’, following the publication of the company’s 10-K. One of the biggest concerns flagged is the sharp growth in ‘Capitalised Contract Costs’, which is now one of the largest items on the balance sheet at ~$850m. It has grown rapidly over the past 5 years, far exceeding growth in sales. CRWD capitalised expenses of $584m in 2025 (vs. $374m last year), far in excess of the amortisation charge of $318m. Remarkably, this represents nearly one third of the entire sales and marketing spend for the year. Also evident, is a rapid growth of ‘Other Asset’ accounts, with minimal disclosure of the makeup or reason for the change. Finally, there is a growing divergence between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings, due to the increasing use of stock-based compensation.
Edition: 208
- 04 April, 2025
Technology
Field views have indicated that CRWD has executed very well to mitigate interruption to its bookings in the months since its crash. Recently, some contacts have told SPR that business continues to be strong, but think the vendor is setting itself up for a "reset" as a result of very aggressive efforts to pull business forward. The timing of a slowdown in bookings is uncertain. However, the channels who are predicting a reset have had very credible views in the past and SPR is now working hard to understand any changes to the vendor’s business. SPR expects a strong upcoming report and will continue to monitor for a slowdown if/when it arrives.
Edition: 205
- 21 February, 2025
IT Spending: Sentiment weaker than last quarter
Technology
SPR’s latest channel checks reveal disappointment that the second half pick up that many expected has not materialised. Stock specific feedback includes: ServiceNow - all very positive - probably the strongest indications for any vendor. Crowdstrike channels and end users see the vendor moving quickly past its recent crash. SPR has picked up mixed feedback re. Fortinet’s recent security breach and whether it negatively impacted Sept Qtr end deal flow. Outside of security, the vendors seeing an increase in positive comments include IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, Arista and Juniper/Mist. It has been easy to pick up comments on share loss by Cisco.
Edition: 197
- 18 October, 2024
Security Spending: Trends remain healthy
Technology
Key takeaways from SPR’s latest field work include: CrowdStrike - seeing some deal slippage, but most respondents believe few customers will actually switch vendors following the global IT outage. SPR has heard of renewal discounts that include buy 3-yr and get 1-yr free. SentinelOne - benefitted from winning more deals at the end of the quarter, assisted by CRWD’s crash. Zscaler - mostly positive input but some concern re. the maturing of the SASE market and possible disruption to sales from the shuffling of sales personnel between ZS to Wiz and from ServiceNow to ZS. Fortinet - industry contacts are positive about its acquisition of NextDLP but less enthusiastic about Laceworks.
Edition: 193
- 23 August, 2024
Technology
ETR conducted a CRWD focused flash survey of 100 IT decision makers on the day of the global IT outage to capture the initial impact and reaction to what was unfolding. Nearly 75% of respondents were from large organisations, including 25% from Global 2000 firms. While 56% of respondents were very unlikely or somewhat unlikely to replace CRWD, a similar amount were reconsidering their reliance on the company and expressed disappointment in its testing and response, urging better QA processes and improvement in communication. Since publishing their findings, ETR has gathered CRWD customers who can share how the outage affected their organisations and discuss how it will influence their relationship with the cybersecurity firm moving forward.
Edition: 192
- 09 August, 2024
Cybersecurity: Potential SEC investigations
Technology
Last October the SEC charged SolarWinds and its chief information security officer with fraud. This report looks at other companies in the cybersecurity industry that may have similar risks to an SEC investigation. Based on Veritas' Freedom of Information Act work, they received confirmations from the SEC pertaining to 15 publicly-listed cybersecurity stocks. Out of the 15 issuers confirmed, 2 attracted SEC scrutiny. Stocks mentioned: Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Zscaler, Cloudflare, Check Point, Okta, Gen Digital, CyberArk, SentinelOne, Qualys, Tenable, Varonis, Rapid7 and SecureWorks.
Edition: 186
- 17 May, 2024
Technology
Feedback from channel contacts on the company's core PAM solution continues to be strong, while CYBR is also the standout beneficiary of the MGM breach. Pipeline generation is healthy. Sales Pulse has heard examples of reps “sitting on deals” to push into the next quarter… always a good sign. Some resellers they talked to shared that CYBR encouraged them to get their SE’s trained and certified on the new CYBR Workforce and Identity offerings, but so far these resellers, have not seen much professional services business based on this investment. Elsewhere, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Okta all look solid, while Fortinet and Tenable have the softest channel sentiment.
Edition: 171
- 13 October, 2023
Technology
SPR’s latest channel checks have picked up more examples of ZS being replaced, primarily by Palo Alto, but also by Netskope as well as customers switching to Cloudflare and Cato Networks. One regional VAR commented "ZS is looking worse, more discounting and deal flow is slowing”, while another said “Customer feedback, or perception, is that ZS functionality in CASB, DLP, and Zero Trust is falling behind PANW and Netskope". Elsewhere, SPR has picked up some signs of improvement for SentinelOne, while views on CrowdStrike have been fairly positive and a little better than the mixed views from the past few quarters.
Edition: 160
- 12 May, 2023
Advanced AI: Sink or swim time for cybersecurity vendors
Technology
How are AI advancements and hype affecting the cybersecurity industry? What are data security vendors doing with AI/ML and cybersecurity automation, and can they protect their market from the major cloud operators with their investments in AI-driven security for their own platforms? During the interviews conducted by Blueshift, industry sources were also asked how they would play the sector near to mid-term and out over time. Companies discussed include Amazon, CrowdStrike, Cisco, CyberArk, Fortinet, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Okta, Palo Alto and Zscaler.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
Security vendor with the strongest momentum
Technology
For some time now CrowdStrike has scored very well in Sales Pulse’s survey results - although much of the input is anecdotal, in their latest survey CRWD has taken the top spot with a notable increase in channel sentiment. Click here to read more.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022
Giant layoffs loom as Tech firms face customer budget freezes
Blueshift’s IT sector sources are pointing at Oracle’s plan to cut c.30k jobs as the crack in the dam that is going to trigger a resizing of workforces across all of tech - as one recruitment executive said, “They have literally been making up jobs for the past several years to beat each other to talent. It had nothing to do with rightsizing. It was a competition to impress investors.” Sources were unanimous that earnings forecasts for the rest of the year across most vendors in all verticals of DIY enterprise networking are going to be poor. Companies covered include Arista Networks, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Dell, Fortinet, IBM, Palo Alto and Zscaler.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Security software earnings quality comparison
Technology
BTN’s earnings quality comparison on six of the major security software players (Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks, Okta, Fortinet, Zscaler and CrowdStrike) examines factors such as relative dependence on stock options and policies regarding capitalised software, sales commissions, network depreciation, and aggressiveness of non-GAAP adjustments. The report ranks the company from most to least aggressive.
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022
Security channels continue to see strong growth for most vendors
Technology
While channels see security budgets as strong for the rest of the year there is concern that the time required to implement some projects has become extended because of a lack of skilled resources. This may result in delays of add-on orders in 2H. US Fed spending which had seen some delays due to operation under CR (Continuing Resolution) is now back on track. Sales Pulse has also found no evidence that Okta lost accounts following its recent breach, however they did hear of some new deals being delayed. Other stocks featured include CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, SentinelOne and Zscaler.
Edition: 136
- 27 May, 2022
Further acceleration in cyber security; other areas of IT spending are mixed
Technology
SPR's preliminary survey results report strong momentum in Q1, and the majority see continued, or accelerated growth for the rest of the year - consistent with previous views and recent reports, those Security Vendors most called out as seeing strong growth are Palo Alto, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and SentinelOne. Also consistent with views from last quarter, vendors with improving checks include Tenable, Ping Identity and Check Point. In contrast, SaaS vendors are having to work much harder to achieve their goals - SPR’s channels noted that SaaS projects were among those that were being pushed out.
Edition: 134
- 29 April, 2022
Technology
Inflection Point Research, LLC
Will beat and raise guidance when they report results for their most recent quarter (due 9th Mar) driven by robust execution and increased customer adoption. Russia's invasion of Ukraine will result in a material increase in cybersecurity spending. CRWD is the next-gen endpoint security leader in the cloud-native EDR space and the rapidly emerging XDR space. While there is currently too much hype and confusion caused by other security vendors over the true definition of XDR, as the dust settles CRWD’s superior / differentiated solution will be even better positioned to grow share at the expense of competitors whose solutions do not stack up technology-wise.
Edition: 130
- 04 March, 2022
Channel contacts report further acceleration of spending on Cyber Security
Technology
High flying but volatile stocks like Zscaler and CrowdStrike are benefitting, but so are some less volatile vendors. Sales Pulse are seeing unexpected acceleration from…
Check Point (CHKP) - generates impressive cash flow but has lacked innovation and bled market share. Channels now see improvement in execution and benefit from spending by its massive installed base.
F5 (FFIV) - reaping the benefits of 3+ years of working on a broader security solution through organic development and acquisitions.
Tenable (TENB) - picking up a LOT of momentum based on the growing recognition by end users of the need to scan 100% of devices for vulnerabilities. This vendor is also the most direct beneficiary of efforts to address the Log4j vulnerability threat.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
SentinelOne (S)
Technology
Exciting IPO in the next generation cyber security end point protection market. SentinelOne has emerged as one of the strongest competitors in the sector. It benefits from the same market drivers that have provided a great opportunity for CrowdStrike, including a large and growing market that has a desperate need for a next generation solution and a competitive environment that includes legacy vendors (Symantec, McAfee, etc) who have fallen behind. Sales Pulse’s channel partners confirm growing win rates due to the vendor’s leading technology and aggressive channel programs.
Edition: 113
- 25 June, 2021
CrowdStrike (CRWD)
Technology
Following stellar results and with the company once again ending the quarter with a record pipeline, Srini Nandury expects further beats and raises in H2. He continues to expect higher levels of security spending with different players winning in various segments of the market - CRWD to triumph in the EDR space and make a strong run in the SIEM space. Srini also notes that customer interest in Humio is very high which is likely to pose a problem for Splunk. CRWD’s moat is becoming deeper and broader. TP $275 (25% upside).
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021