Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
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Is Argentina the next big thing?
Argentina has significant copper reserves yet produces no material copper (see chart). The new investment climate (RIGI) in Argentina, spearheaded by libertarian President Milei, is hoping to reverse this. Other volatile countries including DRC have achieved significant growth, so it’s possible. In his latest report, David Radclyffe examines the potential of Argentina copper. He sees potential for the nation to become a 1.0–1.5 Mt per year copper producer (top 10 globally), but comments on the aspirational timelines, with first copper unlikely on this side of 2029. Issues also cannot be discounted, with ESG concerns bubbling alongside a lack of infrastructure and skilled workers. David estimates the total capex at USD $40–50 billion. Lundin Mining has the most leveraged exposure to Argentina in partnership with BHP and is the preferred exposure. There are a few exploration plays, of which NGEx Minerals (non-rated) and its Lunahuasi discovery is the largest.
Edition: 222
- 17 October, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
Antedata’s coding activity data points to rising freelance projects related to ETSY, highlighting its strong positioning as an AI beneficiary. Freelancers typically help sellers set up storefronts, optimise search visibility, automate listings and create professional branding. ETSY’s vast, unstructured dataset and its dual role as marketplace and discovery hub make it a prime use case for AI. The company already employs AI in search, personalisation and ad targeting, driving better conversion and marketing efficiency. With operating leverage and discretionary R&D / marketing spend, even modest efficiency gains could meaningfully boost profitability - supporting AnteData’s view that ETSY’s current valuation can be justified by earnings growth potential.
Edition: 222
- 17 October, 2025
Galderma (GALD SW) Switzerland
Healthcare
While GALD shares have performed well since the company’s IPO, the stock remains in a "discovery phase", in which its valuation appears expensive amid consensus estimates that do not fully appreciate the underlying fundamental opportunity. Over 50% of cash flows are derived from Botox and dermal fillers, positioning GALD in a duopoly market with a wider moat and longer growth runway than traditional beauty peers. GALD's core skincare business is growing ~10% annually (relative to L’Oreal’s sub-5% revenue growth), driven by exposure to higher value, nascent life cycle segments. The investment case is further supported by the company’s new eczema treatment, Nemluvio, which could generate $5bn+ in sales vs. management’s $2bn guidance. TP CHF230 (60% upside).
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
Communications
Joe Cornell offers a detailed analysis of WBD’s planned spin-off of its Streaming & Studios segments. The move mirrors a broader media trend to separate faster-growing streaming assets from legacy cable operations. The split enhances strategic flexibility - Streaming & Studios could become a more attractive M&A target, while Linear Networks might be paired with a similar business. Joe’s SOTP valuation yields a consolidated target price of $15.00 per share (adjusting for a ~20.0% stake in the Streaming & Studios businesses) for WBD, which implies a potential upside of ~30% from the current market price.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Special Sits Idea Forum
While all the stocks presented at MYST's latest buyside event could be considered undervalued, many offered significant (i.e. >50%) upside. The most differentiated ideas included: Blackbaud (improving fundamentals more apparent post-EVERFI divestiture; potential M&A target); HealthEquity (new legislation fuelling dramatic TAM expansion + bond portfolio repricing tailwinds); and JBS (multiple to expand as US listing drives increased passive ownership / index inclusion). More familiar names discussed included: Fluor (huge NuScale Power (SMR) monetisation catalyst not reflected in Street estimates); Teva Pharmaceutical (generics cash cow enabling innovative branded portfolio pipeline development); and Warner Bros. Discovery (well positioned for media consolidation wave amid forthcoming business separation).
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
ASML (ASML NA) Netherlands
Technology
Kinngai Chan argues that most of the risk for FY25 such as slower than expected demand recovery and expanded export restriction into China have been priced into the stock. He expects the demand for ASML's EUV lithography tools to recover and accelerate through 2025 as he sees higher performance requirements for AI-related applications in both the datacentre infrastructure as well as endpoints products. While there remains some uncertainty about the growth of AI-infrastructure capex in the near-to-medium term due to the discovery of new more efficient LLM model algorithms, Kinngai thinks the AI adoption in the client devices could easily offset the possible weaker WFE spend for infrastructure.
Edition: 204
- 07 February, 2025
Communications
Decades of price gouging and significant brand mismanagement was bound to cause Parks to slip up sooner rather than later. DIS will start FY25 with Parks growth flat (at best) and the well-known myriad of headwinds facing the Entertainment division. Warner Bros. Discovery just took a massive write-down on its linear networks. DIS will have to do the same at some point. Most importantly, modelling future EPS growth is only getting more difficult. EPS is topping out around current levels. What to pay for peak earnings? It is not 17x-25x. The new trading range for the stock as it slowly "dies" is $30-$75/share assuming $3.00-$5.00 of EPS and a 10x-15x multiple.
Edition: 193
- 23 August, 2024
Communications
Arete sees a $4.5-5bn EBITDA improvement from streaming by the end of the decade and thinks that the expected loss of the NBA means that '26E will likely mark the low-point of group EBITDA (at ~$9.4bn), before international streaming growth is sufficient to offset linear declines. The market is clearly not expecting any stabilisation right now, with the stock implied at <3x P/FCF in '25E. Leverage should hit management's 2.5-3 turn target range in '25E and WBD would then be able to buy back stock very accretively. This scenario creates a significant potential upside case, with Arete’s revised TP of $24 implying the shares could more than triple, and yet still trade only at ~10x trough P/FCF.
Edition: 189
- 28 June, 2024
Bank Stocks: Controlling the narrative (except for credit quality)
Financials
Charles Peabody does not believe that the problems at NYCB will prove to be unique. He thinks the credit cycle has further to play out and that it will get a lot worse before it gets better. He expects regulators to find similar problems at other regional banks. It’s just that they may want to “pace” the discovery process so as not to create a systemic crisis. In the meantime, regional banks (a la Columbia Banking System) will be encouraged to build liquidity (at the expense of NIM) so that they might be able to absorb negative fundamental news (either within their own franchise or at a neighbouring bank). The current risk/reward for bottom fishing is simply not worth it.
Edition: 181
- 08 March, 2024
Industrials
The stock was highlighted at MYST’s latest Industrial Ideas Forum, with the Presenter claiming that OEM’s “can NOT make planes” without CRS’ specialty metal alloys, putting it in the sweet spot of the aerospace supply chain. While he sees upside to Street estimates and ample room for multiple expansion, he believes CRS also offers substantial “discovery value”, noting that it has relatively limited long only sponsorship and is covered by just 3 Sell-side analysts with stale earnings estimates. Management’s plans to double FY19 operating income by FY27 look conservative. The stock trades at a substantial discount to peers despite having similar scarcity value. TP ~$120 (100% upside).
Edition: 167
- 18 August, 2023
Communications
DTC subscriber growth has stalled in the face of price increases, marketing cuts and future content reductions, while the company’s cost allocation accounting means streaming losses in FY22 ($3.4bn) were understated relative to the accounting policies of Warner Bros Discovery / Comcast to the tune of $2.5bn, giving an indication of the challenges. Despite assuming a DIS / Hulu merger, Arete expects DTC to generate one-third less EBITDA long-term than they previously modelled and have lowered their TP from $94 to $65 (25% downside).
Edition: 165
- 21 July, 2023
Communications
The heavy lifting on restructuring is now largely complete (Paramount and Disney are just starting theirs) with expenses down $2.8bn and cash content spending running at ~$4bn/qtr. Studios look likely to recover from 2H23, advertising looks to have bottomed, and the new Max streaming platform has a good mix of content that should be attractive to all viewers meaning top and bottom line should show amelioration from here. Arete forecasts EBITDA of $11.2bn in 2023 and FCF of $4.4bn. For 2024, they expect a further improvement in EBITDA to $13.1bn and FCF to jump to $5.9bn (net debt declines to $36.1bn (2.8x) allowing a buyback to start late in the year). TP $31 (130% upside).
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Communications
Andrew Hollingworth has previously been keen to highlight the many aspects of NFLX's long term Sustainable Competitive Advantages while also being attracted to the short-term price discovery that was due to occur because of password-sharing changes. Following the recent news that each user not from the main household will now have to pay $7.99 in the US and £4.99 in the UK, Andrew’s prior calculations are revealing - he suggested that just a single add on charge of $4 p/m income for each of the 100m password sharing households would add $4.8bn in revenue; EBIT margin would jump from 20% to 30% and RoNTA from 14% to 25% - it's operational gearing on steroids!
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Communications
High conviction mis-valuation opportunity only emphasised by Warren Buffet's increased investment in Paramount Global - Robert Sassoon argues Netflix’s woes are company specific (reliance on streaming subscriptions has simply laid bare its vulnerabilities). By contrast, WBD, PARA and Disney have diversified revenue models, backed up with high quality content libraries. WBD’s debt burden is also less onerous than it appears (very attractive fixed rate terms and interest payments will be dwarfed by FCF generation prior to the first repayment dates in 2024). Attributing a PARA-like value multiple to WBD's consensus 2023 EBITDA offers 80%+ upside.
Edition: 136
- 27 May, 2022
Communications
Plenty of value left on the table - why investors should play the pending Discovery / WarnerMedia merger through AT&T. Robert Sassoon’s conservative TP of $41 for Warner Bros. Discovery still offers 40%+ upside from the prevailing share prices of both DISCK/DISCA. However, with AT&T trading on an EV/Consensus 2023 EBITDA multiple of ~7x, and assuming AT&T ex-WM continues to be valued at a similar multiple, then purchasing AT&T shares now gives investors a ~65% cheaper option to purchase WBD shares than through DISCK.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
Discovery (DISCK)
Communications
Robert Sassoon explains why market apathy towards Discovery’s merger with AT&T's WarnerMedia is a gift to value investors and believes the $43bn deal will give Warner Bros. Discovery a real shot at competing more effectively in the DTC streaming market. Robert sees 30%+ upside over the next 12-15 months (based on a very conservative 10x 2023 EV/EBITDA), with the prospect of a greater than 100% return should investors become “a little more excited” about WBD's streaming service strategy as they have done with Netflix and Disney.
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021
Midac (6564)
Industrials
Despite featuring in the top 3 Storm Recommended List performers for the 4Q20 (+37%) & 1Q21 (+63%) the stock continues to go up. Why?
i. It is a high quality business with excellent management and significant long term growth potential.
ii. Storm exclusive coverage means the discovery factor is high.
iii. Japan’s waste market supply/demand is tight and getting tighter.
iv. A swathe of ESG related funds own Daiseki, yet none of them own Midac, despite it being a higher quality business with better growth prospects.
Edition: 109
- 30 April, 2021