Starlink: What impact might it have on the telcos?
Communications
New Street assesses the potential threat of Starlink to European telecom operators, emphasising that the risk comes primarily from Starlink’s direct-to-dish broadband service rather than the more publicised direct-to-device satellite offering, which they see as limited and possibly even accretive to mobile operators. Currently, Starlink's penetration in Europe is just 0.3-0.4%, with existing infrastructure supporting up to 1%. A full rollout of the V2 constellation could raise that to 1.4%, while a longer-term deployment of 15,000 V3 satellites could theoretically push penetration to 8-10%, though this would take over a decade. However, FTTH rollout, dish siting constraints and pricing remain key barriers, and New Street sees limited near-term disruption to wireline telcos.
Edition: 213
- 13 June, 2025
If Trump wins, how will Musk affect Telecom policy?
Communications
Analysts at New Street outline the most underappreciated telecom policy consequences of the election: the impact Elon Musk will have, if Trump is elected. They focus on 3 policies: 1) BEAD - Musk will seek to divert dollars from fibre deployments to subsidising Starlink service. 2) USF - he will attempt to see the scale of the USF programme cut back materially. 3) Spectrum (where Musk has the most to gain) - he will push for a variety of decisions in his favour, including Starlink gaining access to 2GHz spectrum currently used by Dish and Globalstar. While he will not win all these, he is likely to win some, and much more likely to win than the market appreciates.
Edition: 197
- 18 October, 2024
CSG Systems International (CSGS)
Technology
The strategy to diversify into higher-growth markets is producing sustainably stronger organic growth on top of the company’s historically high revenue visibility and consistent cash flow. Furthermore, the DirecTV / Dish merger provides a new opportunity to gain share for CSG. While Dish is already a long-time customer, DirecTV uses an Amdocs billing platform and as long as AT&T owned DirecTV this was unlikely to change. Sidoti now sees these subscribers as a tangible opportunity for CSG (could double the revenue it currently generates from Dish). Meanwhile, they continue to expect acquisitions to provide an additional catalyst for the stock. TP $74 (55% upside).
Edition: 196
- 04 October, 2024
Communications
According to CTFN’s industry sources, DISH’s merger with satellite communications company SATS is unlikely to face burdensome regulatory hurdles at the US Federal Communications Commission and is expected to be received as an effort by the acquirer to meet its upcoming 5G buildout deadline. The merger will allow both parties to combine the expertise and financial assets of SATS while allowing DISH to raise additional capital. While rival telecom players can be expected to oppose the deal, these concerns will not have much sway at the agencies as the parties involved will argue that DISH is a new entrant in the wireless business trying to compete against incumbents.
Edition: 167
- 18 August, 2023