Consumer Discretionary
Antedata’s coding activity data points to rising freelance projects related to ETSY, highlighting its strong positioning as an AI beneficiary. Freelancers typically help sellers set up storefronts, optimise search visibility, automate listings and create professional branding. ETSY’s vast, unstructured dataset and its dual role as marketplace and discovery hub make it a prime use case for AI. The company already employs AI in search, personalisation and ad targeting, driving better conversion and marketing efficiency. With operating leverage and discretionary R&D / marketing spend, even modest efficiency gains could meaningfully boost profitability - supporting AnteData’s view that ETSY’s current valuation can be justified by earnings growth potential.
Edition: 222
- 17 October, 2025
Consumer Discretionary
ETSY is once again allowing its platform to be polluted with items which are hardly 'handmade' goods and degrading the quality of its search results, possibly to grab more GMS and boost its flagging growth. While some investors have been celebrating recent headcount cuts, they are overlooking the structural weaknesses in the business. To revitalise its brand, ETSY needs to 1) Guide to far lower sales as part of an effort to clear the marketplace of counterfeit or inappropriate listings. 2) Focus its attention on sellers rather than buyers. Otherwise, its current approach - denying problems and deflecting value criticisms - will inevitably lead to multiple compression for the stock.
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
Consumer Discretionary
All leading indicators, including customer aggregation, buying habits, and sales/customer, have already turned negative and Neeraj Monga does not believe that ETSY has additional headroom to increase prices, which will result in the e-commerce firm disappointing investors in its sales forecast for 2023. Companies delivering 8% EBITDA growth and declining sales do not justify 30x EV/EBITDA multiples. Neeraj also details management's clueless approach to capital allocation - within one year of splurging $1.5bn in cash to buy UK-based Depop, the company was forced to write down its investment.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Fallen Angels: Sorting through the rubble
Short term pain, long term gain - three ideas where negative short term fundamentals are obscuring long term attractive businesses...
CoStar (CSGP) - No competition, plus headroom to increase prices. 2022 EBITDA margins will be ~27% vs. the 40%+ that the business should do as growth matures.
Etsy (ETSY) - Scaled, capital light, low SBC, and management team with a good history of execution. Take rates will rise longer term, thus revenue can compound faster than GMS.
Pinterest (PINS) - Not all users are equal; core users will be sticky and engaged. Worst case scenario the stock is worth ~$25, but in this scenario Abacus are ~50% below the street for EBITDA.
Edition: 131
- 18 March, 2022
Post-Pandemic Model Portfolio’s outperformance continues
Since inception (31st Dec 2020) Nathan Weiss’ model portfolio has generated an impressive +25.09% total return (vs. +11.12% for S&P 500). He is currently 38.3% net long the energy sector (incl. Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure, ChampionX, Energy Transfer LP); 17.1% net long ‘re-opening’ names (incl. Dave & Buster’s, Six Flags) and 29.6% short ‘stay at home enablers’ (incl. Stitch Fix, ARK Next Generation Internet, Etsy, Wayfair). He recently increased his short position in DoorDash - sees >50% downside in a matter of months.
Edition: 111
- 28 May, 2021