EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

AppLovin (APP)

Technology

Revelare Partners

Revelare recently hosted a call for their clients on APP’s e-commerce advertising expansion. Their guest speaker was Jonathan Snow, co-founder at Avenue Z, an advertising, performance marketing and PR agency managing $75m+ in digital media spend annually across APP, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok Shop, Snap, among other platforms. Mr. Snow provided an update on his agency’s use of APP’s advertising platform for ecommerce clients, growth of brands on the platform, APP’s performance relative to Meta, growth of advertising budgets for APP, how they test for incrementality, audience demographics, CPMs, improvements to the tech stack, and competition from Unity and Liftoff, among other topics.

Edition: 208

- 04 April, 2025


Tencent (700 HK)

Communications

Your Weekend Reading

The globalisation of WeChat - which has done what Facebook never did - they combined chat, social and payments. And now they are innovating again by going over the top of iOS and Android with Mini-Programs. The Mini-Program combo of apps/social/chat and payments is a superior platform and as businesses outside of China start to realise this Erik@YWR sees users hitting 2bn by 2030. The faster growth of WeChat relative to games and social media will transform the company’s revenue mix. The expanding international customer base will unlock growth in payment fees, advertising and Tencent Cloud. Erik sees EPS over HK$35 in 2028 (vs. HK$20 in 2024). TP HK$1000.

Edition: 192

- 09 August, 2024


News Corp (NWSA)

Communications

Huber Research Partners

Using Craig Huber’s 2024 EBITDA estimates and segment multiples in his SOTP analysis suggests that the current price is implying an overly punitive 42% conglomerate discount to NWSA’s valuation. If management won't break up the company, then they should at least sell / spinoff Subscription Video Services and break out Professional Information into its own segment. Craig notes that there are signs that NWSA’s portfolio is moving in the right direction including some shrewd acquisitions as well as content licensing deals with Google, Facebook and Apple, but the stock has been trapped in underperformance (7 of last 9 years) and something big needs to change here.

Edition: 142

- 19 August, 2022


InterActiveCorp (IAC)

Communications

Boyar Research

Has Dotdash Meredith found hidden value in underappreciated brands? Jonathan Boyar discusses how Meredith’s legacy brands can help the company achieve the scale it needs to spin out of IAC and become an independent company making the $2.7bn acquisition look like a bargain. Dotdash has developed an effective playbook for building digital lifestyle brands and by engaging readers in their content (rather than treating them primarily as a conduit for advertising) it makes it an increasingly appealing alternative to large-scale subscription-based ad services run by the likes of Facebook and Google.

Edition: 135

- 13 May, 2022


Meta Platforms / Facebook (FB)

Communications

Radio Free Mobile

Trip around the Digital Life Pie begins - FB's acquisition of VR fitness company Within will be the first of many as it looks to acquire the technologies and services that it lacks in order to have a complete ecosystem for the Metaverse (where the green shoots of early beginnings are springing up in VR and in Oculus particularly). While Richard Windsor believes the stock will remain under pressure in the near-term (PR problems), FB will be one of the cheapest ways to play the Metaverse theme.

Edition: 123

- 12 November, 2021


Facebook (FB)

Communication Services

Radio Free Mobile

The American ByteDance? - In a bad week for FB, Mr. Zuckerberg shot down allegations effectively, claiming that the US government wants to utilise events to stifle his company's ability to distribute news and information. The media is not a neutral observer and a draconian crackdown seems on the cards, which would hurt the US as a tech superpower long term.

Edition: 121

- 15 October, 2021


Sector rotation just hit a major inflection point

Belkin Report

Energy, Financials and Value are IN, Tech and Growth are OUT - that's according to market timing and sector rotation specialist Michael Belkin. Having previously had an underperform forecast for both energy (S&P Energy -26% alpha from early Mar to end Aug) and financials (S&P Financials -10% alpha from its Jun peak to its recent relative low), his model forecast has just turned bullish for both these sectors on a 3-6 month view. This rotation also feeds into a reversal for value vs. growth - Michael has a fresh sell signal and underperform forecast for the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft.

Edition: 120

- 01 October, 2021


Facebook (FB)

Communications

Blueshift Research

Facebook Shops are far from delivering on immense promise - Blueshift primary research reveals a “clunky” shopping experience for users, generating minimal revenue for merchants (ROI $1.00-$1.50 per $1.00 spent vs. $3.50-$4.00 seen from other channels). Issues include confusing rules for opening a shop, trouble optimising products and glitches where the platform rejects products. The meagre initial results created a cycle where sellers are reluctant to shift ad dollars from other channels and steer traffic to their Facebook Shops.

Edition: 112

- 11 June, 2021