Can gold back it up in 2024?
At the time of writing, the spot gold price is US$2,030/oz and well above consensus estimates for 2024 of US$1,925/oz (Factset). David Radclyffe examines whether the drivers behind the price will continue. First, inflation is not likely to be the same factor as it has been in the recent past, and the 3Q23 gold price retreat may have represented a pricing in of lower inflation. There’s also a historical inverse correlation between 10-year US bond rates and gold prices; if rates move back towards the decade average of 2.3%, it should be a positive catalyst for gold. There’s also the US dollar, which often has an inverse correlation to gold and could weaken amidst lower rates and a soft landing. Yet in spite of decade high prices, very few gold miner equities are anywhere near a high level; what will it take for gold equities to price levels closer to spot?
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
Technology
Has proven time and time again that its business model can continue to grow through various global crises - the momentum that FDS has with its organic revenue growth (+9.9% y/y in 2Q22) is the best the company has produced since 2012. Craig Huber sees room for the firm to be more aggressive raising prices. He also rates the new CFO highly and believes FDS will be more acquisitive / use debt more (both of which just happened with the company’s largest ever acquisition) and expects aggressive share repurchases when they resume next year.
Edition: 132
- 01 April, 2022