EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Can gold back it up in 2024?

Global Mining Research

At the time of writing, the spot gold price is US$2,030/oz and well above consensus estimates for 2024 of US$1,925/oz (Factset). David Radclyffe examines whether the drivers behind the price will continue. First, inflation is not likely to be the same factor as it has been in the recent past, and the 3Q23 gold price retreat may have represented a pricing in of lower inflation. There’s also a historical inverse correlation between 10-year US bond rates and gold prices; if rates move back towards the decade average of 2.3%, it should be a positive catalyst for gold. There’s also the US dollar, which often has an inverse correlation to gold and could weaken amidst lower rates and a soft landing. Yet in spite of decade high prices, very few gold miner equities are anywhere near a high level; what will it take for gold equities to price levels closer to spot?

Edition: 177

- 12 January, 2024


FactSet (FDS)

Technology

Huber Research Partners

Has proven time and time again that its business model can continue to grow through various global crises - the momentum that FDS has with its organic revenue growth (+9.9% y/y in 2Q22) is the best the company has produced since 2012. Craig Huber sees room for the firm to be more aggressive raising prices. He also rates the new CFO highly and believes FDS will be more acquisitive / use debt more (both of which just happened with the company’s largest ever acquisition) and expects aggressive share repurchases when they resume next year.

Edition: 132

- 01 April, 2022