A compelling growth story

AIR Capital

AIR highlights Spain as the Eurozone’s standout growth opportunity, further supported by US immigration tightening redirecting talent and labour. The country is benefitting from its strong position in the EU’s €750bn Next Generation EU program, minimal exposure to US tariffs and insulation from Chinese industrial competition. A rapid transition to renewables has driven a 40% decline in wholesale electricity prices over five years, while lower structural taxes and spending continue to support competitiveness. Preferred sector calls include Infrastructure (Acciona, Ferrovial, Sacyr) with robust project pipelines supported by public and private investment; Banking & Insurance (CaixaBank) benefitting from SME exposure and high household savings rates; Real Estate (Merlin, Metrovacesa) poised for catch-up gains vs. other European countries amid supply constraints; and Defence, where Indra Sistemas is well positioned for M&A.

- 17 October, 2025

Global Infrastructure stocks offer massive upside

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes remains bullish on the Infrastructure sector, citing strong long-term traffic growth, resilient IRRs (averaging 11.3%, +290bps above Insight’s 8.5% Ke) and deep value in listed equities trading ~40% below NAV, despite private market transactions averaging just -3% below NAV over the past decade. The sector shows a weighted average upside of +78%, with notably higher upside in North America (+102%) and Europe (+73%) versus South America (-5%). Credit risk is not a concern, as leverage is manageable, bond yields have plateaued after a sharp 2022 rise and most debt remains fixed at low rates with long durations. Robert's top picks are Ferrovial, Canadian National Railway and Cellnex, each offering over +110% upside.

- 27 June, 2025

Atlas Arteria (ALX)

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes maintains a Sell rating on ALX, citing limited upside vs. broader infrastructure peers and mixed asset quality. While ALX’s stake in APRR delivers robust FCF and steady distribution growth, its minority position and concession expiry in 2035 limit long-term value. The Chicago Skyway deal offers modest value, but DG is deeply value-destructive, with equity estimated 70% below ALX’s 2017 purchase price. ALX's infrastructure distributions are set to rise to A$920m by 2030E but collapse to A$250m in 2037E. Robert expects IFM to increase its stake, but it has had a negative impact on the share price to date and cut daily trading liquidity in half. He continues to prefer Ferrovial (+100% upside) and Getlink (+85%) in Global Toll Roads.

- 30 May, 2025

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Smart Insider

Ernesto Lopez Mozo (CFO since 2009) acquired €224k of stock at €44.93 - only his second buy despite a long tenure. His first was €129k at €25.88 in Feb 20, making this latest move notable for both its larger size and higher price, after a gap of over five years. Rafael Del Pino Calvo-Sotelo (Chair since 2009) also made a rare €1.8m buy in Mar 25 at €37.17. Both are encouraging insider signals with shares near all-time highs. Meanwhile, Luke Bugeja (Divisional CEO since 2021) sold €929k worth of shares on the same day, which matches a stock award in Mar 25. This aligns with 2024, when he also sold his full award. The sale is not concerning enough to offset Smart Insider’s positive view.

- 30 May, 2025

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

FER agrees to acquire up to a 5.06% stake in 407 ETR from AtkinsRéalis for C$2.09bn, which Robert Crimes considers highly value accretive (the deal price implies for 100% of equity in the toll road a valuation of only C$41,304m, a -63% discount to his DDM valuation) and strategically positive (Cintra will be the majority shareholder). With CPPIB also showing a willingness to reduce its stake in 407 ETR, he strongly believes FER should continue to increase its holding. Robert’s SOTP based TP is €99 (140% upside); he believes the market underestimates the company’s long duration infrastructure cashflows.

- 21 March, 2025

Infrastructure stocks offer huge upside

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

The companies covered by Insight offer an average upside of 90%. Their top 3 names are: 1) Ferrovial (TP €82) - US Managed Lanes EBITDA growing rapidly on good transactions growth and excellent toll increases. 2) Canadian National Railway (TP C$354) - mostly unregulated pricing and limited cyclicality of EBITDA. Strong recurring FCF growth, High ROIC and shareholder remuneration to grow at >6% CAGR to 2050E. 3) Cellnex (TP €75) - pan European tower platform with strong market positions and inflation linked contracts. Paused acquisition strategy will see rapid deleverage, stronger grade credit rating, then enhanced shareholder remuneration.

- 18 October, 2024

SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

Cerundolo Investment Research

Guy Cerundolo provides a basket of long ideas in Europe. These stocks have good and improving multi-factor model scores. In addition to SAP (see chart) he also highlights companies including ASM International, Assa Abloy, CRH, Ferrovial, Philips, Rolls-Royce and Tesco.

- 09 August, 2024

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes considers the likely early termination of Abertis and ACS’ SH-288 Managed Lanes an isolated process and does not expect TDOT to do the same for FER’s Texas Managed Lanes, which except for NTE-35W, do not have preset compensation, with fair market values far higher and valuable revenue shares would be foregone. Robert reduces his valuation for FER’s 53.7% of NTE-35W from €7.4bn to €4.5bn due to higher than expected revenue shares, recently published by TDOT. His new Managed Lane valuation is €20.0bn, double that implied by the share price.

- 17 May, 2024

Transactions indicate high upside for listed Infrastructure

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes reviews 138 global infrastructure deals that took place between 2015 and 2023, focusing on the 38 where he had a DCF based NAV. These transactions averaged a -3% discount to Insight NAV but listed valuations trade at a -35% discount. Share prices would need to rise c.50% to close the valuation gap. Robert expects deal flow to continue driven by undervaluation of listed corporates, resilient indexed linked FCF growth and reducing COC. Insight's key Buys to arbitrage from listed to unlisted are Ferrovial, Getlink, Inwit and Cellnex.

- 12 January, 2024

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes increases his valuation of FER’s 55.7% stake in the I-66 by +18% to €5.2bn. Having fully opened 12 months ago, the toll road is beating all forecasts. Robert models revenues of $300m, 35% above Cintra’s estimates in 2024E, due to higher toll prices as a result of good time savings, wealthy users and more trucks. Willingness to Pay will continue to rise with worsening congestion and household income growth. Robert expects I-66 EBITDA growth +6.7% CAGR, driven by average tolls/transaction rising from $7.70 in 2024E by +4.9% CAGR and traffic +2.8% CAGR 2024-66E. His SOTP based TP increases to €68 (120% upside).

- 24 November, 2023

Canadian National Railway (CNR CN) Canada

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Reliable demand, strong unregulated pricing, high capital barriers and excellent returns - Robert Crimes initiates coverage with a Buy rating and TP of C$360 (100%+ upside). Insight’s key value added vs. The Street is application of their Global Infrastructure specific valuation framework focused on DCF and IRR, their assessment of long-term volumes, pricing and FCFs and their ability to rate CNR vs. the other Global Infrastructure stocks in their universe, rather than other North American transportation stocks. CNR enters at 4th of 24 on the Insight Stock Ranking System, after Ferrovial, Cellnex and Getlink.

- 03 February, 2023

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

New Terminal One at New York’s JFK airport offers unique exposure to almost pure intercontinental traffic with high ticket yields for airlines, enabling high aeronautical fees and high retail spending - within Insight’s 16-page flagship report, Robert Crimes’ key value add vs. the Street is his assessment of future capacity in the New York Air System, appraisal of the strategies of competing terminals, benchmarking of peer airports (aeronautical fees and retail) and full detailed DCF valuation (values FER’s 49% stake at $2.1bn vs. $1.14bn invested; IRR on equity invested is 13.0%, 326bps above Ke of 9.2%).

- 28 October, 2022

Insight’s global Infrastructure stocks offer avg. upside of 78%

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Valuations attractive vs. history on SOTP discount, IRR-Ke, Recurring FCF yield and dividend yield - stock prices over discounting higher real bond yields / credit risk not a concern. Robert Crimes sees significantly higher upside in Europe (+104%) than Asia Pacific (+44%) and South America (+11%). Highest weighted average upside for Towers (+121%), where Robert prefers Cellnex (+143%). Second highest upside in Contractors (+98%) and Ferrovial (+158%) remains his top pick. Less upside in Airports (+79%) but European Airports (+112%) have strong potential, with Aena, ADP and FH Zurich all offering 85%+ upside.

- 14 October, 2022

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Prolonged traffic recovery at 407-ETR has been weighing on the share price, but Robert Crimes expects an acceleration as Covid restrictions were fully lifted at the end of Q1 - TomTom congestion data for Toronto is almost back to 2019 levels and Insight’s Google Maps survey shows 407-ETR average peak time savings of 26 mins and LV Cost of Time Saved per hour of US$30. Robert increases his valuation of FER's 43.2% stake in 407-ETR by +€0.6bn to €17.5bn (only slightly less than the group’s entire Managed Lanes portfolio at €18bn); it is the most valuable toll road in Insight’s Global Infrastructure universe. TP €62 (150% upside).

- 10 June, 2022

The Arbitrage Between Unlisted & Listed Infrastructure Assets

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Transaction volumes have risen from €20bn p.a. in 2019-20 to €58bn in 2021, with acquirers preying on listed assets, such as ASPI, Sydney Airport, OMA and IRB. Having reviewed the 109 largest deals (2015-21), Robert Crimes reveals transportation infrastructure listed valuations are at c.30% discounts to transactions based relative to Insight’s NAV.s (set by DCF.s) and share prices need to rise c.40% to close the valuation gap. His top picks (combining undervaluation and probability of a takeover) are Inwit, Getlink, Aleatica and Ferrovial.

- 26 November, 2021

Insight’s Global Infrastructure Stocks Offer Massive Upside

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Strong recovery from Covid, high lifetime FCF & IRR.s intact - companies covered by Robert Crimes offer an average upside of 73%. Europe (+98%) leads the way, followed by Asia Pacific (+51%) and South America (+43%). Highest average upside for Towers (+98%); prefers Inwit (+130%) to Vantage Towers and Cellnex. Airports (+81%); top pick is Aena (+131%). Stock selection in Toll roads is crucial - favours PINFRA & Aleatica in Mexico, offset by no upside for CCR in Brazil. In Contractors, Robert's top pick (and his No.1 ranked stock) is Ferrovial (+143%).

- 17 September, 2021

Ferrovial (FER SM) Spain

Industrials

Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes increases his valuation for FER’s 43.2% stake in the 407-ETR by €2.5bn to €18.7bn; explains why he considers it to be the most valuable toll road in Insight’s coverage. Their Willingness to Pay framework suggests tolls could rise up to 2-3x. Share price over discounting temporary low traffic levels and WFH concerns which will be offset by growth in Heavy Vehicles and 'other'/leisure uses. SOTP TP €57 (130% upside).

- 09 July, 2021