Flutter & DraftKings: Bespoke CEO project

Consumer Discretionary

Paragon Intel

Paragon Intel is launching a bespoke CEO assessment project on FLUT’s Jeremy Jackson and DKNG’s Jason Robins. While both leaders boast headline achievements, they now confront converging pressures - higher state betting taxes, rising CAC, regulatory scrutiny and complex integrations. With Robins shifting focus towards FCF generation and Jackson tasked with defending FanDuel’s margin edge amid intensifying competition, Paragon will evaluate whether each CEO possesses the capital-allocation discipline, governance model and operating rigour to convert scale into durable profitability. They will also explore how differences in ownership control impact succession, strategic agility and shareholder alignment as the US sports betting market matures.

- 25 July, 2025

Flutter Entertainment (FLTR LN) UK

Consumer Discretionary

Hedgeye

UK tax raid rumours create a buying opportunity - FLTR will be able to weather the impacts through market share gains and cost containment measures. Hedgeye sees the blended tax rate going to ~35% starting next year. The market size will be lower as will the profit pool, but FLTR’s piece of the pie will be bigger in the long term. Anyway, it is not the UK growth story that matters (it will represent <20% of EBITDA by 2026 and well below 20% on a long-term basis) as Hedgeye makes the case that the group’s US business alone is worth nearly $200 / share. On revised figures out to 2027, they see a $300+ stock.

- 18 October, 2024

Flutter Entertainment (FLTR LN) UK

Consumer Discretionary

MYST Advisors

Now trades at a meaningful discount to peers despite dominant position in ALL its major markets - this has been caused by negative, but “fundamentally meaningless” headlines over the last few months. Another issue is that US investors are still not familiar with the company despite FLTR’s US revenues being 50% higher than the No.2 player (its US segment’s implied valuation is just 3.5x FY23 EV / Sales vs. 8x for DraftKings). A spin-out of FanDuel (possibly in 1H22) should provide a catalyst to crystallise the company’s SOTP value; or given the ongoing consolidation in the online gambling space, could Disney be lining up a takeover? TP £200 (80% upside).

- 26 November, 2021