EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

IT Survey: Robust spend, GenAI boom, staffing cuts

Technology

Rosenblatt Securities

Rosenblatt’s July survey of 100+ senior IT managers reveals a surprisingly robust IT spending outlook, with two-thirds of budgets being revised higher since the start of 2025, despite macro concerns. GenAI is the top investment priority, with 60% increasing spend and nearly 70% expecting a material organisational impact. Over 75% expect developer staffing cuts of 10%+. Cybersecurity remains a defensive spending priority with investment flowing towards securing modern, distributed environments (Cloud, SASE/SSE) and data itself - benefitting CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Fortinet. AWS fared much better, ranking first in "cloud service provider best positioned in AI", with 28% (vs. 16% in Dec 24), surpassing Google and Microsoft. Infrastructure names like Snowflake, Rubrik and MongoDB are also well-positioned amid data estate modernisation.

Edition: 216

- 25 July, 2025


Channel Chatter: Regional Security VAR, ESX Conference, BEAD

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR’s recent channel conversations highlight growing traction for emerging vendors like Onum and Cribl, which optimise SIEM data flow and reduce Splunk renewal costs. CrowdStrike remains a standout with strong SIEM growth and aggressive sales execution, though channel favouritism limits broader access. Cloudflare, despite a strong product, struggles with channel inefficiencies, while Fortinet is gaining share in select regions but not winning new logos with Lacework. Cisco’s security momentum may be challenged by the departure of Gary Steele. Meanwhile, BEAD funding delays and policy shifts are hurting traditional fibre and “turf” vendors, as fixed wireless and satellite gain favour. At ESX, Napco remains a solid player, but growth has normalised post-3G sunset.

Edition: 215

- 11 July, 2025


Palo Alto (PANW)

Technology

Verbatim Advisory Group

Overall trends for 1Q25 are weaker Y/Y, according to Verbatim’s latest channel survey. The majority of respondents reported that they are not meeting their internal goals, while their sales activity for PANW is also below their expectations. Price sensitivity, delayed projects, negative market environment, and competition from Fortinet and Cisco are the major headwinds for the current period. The average sales cycle is either the same or slightly longer (ranges between 4-18 months). Deal sizes are mostly either flat or up Y/Y. A North American system integrator also mentions that new product launches are having no impact on overall sales.

Edition: 199

- 15 November, 2024


IT Spending: Sentiment weaker than last quarter

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR’s latest channel checks reveal disappointment that the second half pick up that many expected has not materialised. Stock specific feedback includes: ServiceNow - all very positive - probably the strongest indications for any vendor. Crowdstrike channels and end users see the vendor moving quickly past its recent crash. SPR has picked up mixed feedback re. Fortinet’s recent security breach and whether it negatively impacted Sept Qtr end deal flow. Outside of security, the vendors seeing an increase in positive comments include IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, Arista and Juniper/Mist. It has been easy to pick up comments on share loss by Cisco.

Edition: 197

- 18 October, 2024


Security Spending: Trends remain healthy

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

Key takeaways from SPR’s latest field work include: CrowdStrike - seeing some deal slippage, but most respondents believe few customers will actually switch vendors following the global IT outage. SPR has heard of renewal discounts that include buy 3-yr and get 1-yr free. SentinelOne - benefitted from winning more deals at the end of the quarter, assisted by CRWD’s crash. Zscaler - mostly positive input but some concern re. the maturing of the SASE market and possible disruption to sales from the shuffling of sales personnel between ZS to Wiz and from ServiceNow to ZS. Fortinet - industry contacts are positive about its acquisition of NextDLP but less enthusiastic about Laceworks.

Edition: 193

- 23 August, 2024


Check Point Software (CHKP)

Technology

Verbatim Advisory Group

Verbatim’s initial channel checks indicate that Q2 trends are drastically weaker on a Y/Y basis by 30% on average. Strong competitor offerings, lack of perceived need for advanced security solutions and budget constraints are reasons for lost sales. Q3 trends are also expected to be mostly weaker Y/Y. Verbatim also hears that there are no additional marketing efforts from CHKP to boost the sales pipeline. The company is either losing or having no changes in market share. While Fortinet seems to be gaining traction, particularly in the SMB space, they hear that Palo Alto is making headway in larger companies.

Edition: 190

- 12 July, 2024


Cybersecurity: Potential SEC investigations

Technology

Veritas Investment Research

Last October the SEC charged SolarWinds and its chief information security officer with fraud. This report looks at other companies in the cybersecurity industry that may have similar risks to an SEC investigation. Based on Veritas' Freedom of Information Act work, they received confirmations from the SEC pertaining to 15 publicly-listed cybersecurity stocks. Out of the 15 issuers confirmed, 2 attracted SEC scrutiny. Stocks mentioned: Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Zscaler, Cloudflare, Check Point, Okta, Gen Digital, CyberArk, SentinelOne, Qualys, Tenable, Varonis, Rapid7 and SecureWorks.

Edition: 186

- 17 May, 2024


Fortinet (FTNT)

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

Sales Pulse's latest channel checks suggests there could be problems with FTNT’s North American sales culture. In early Oct, they reported how the cybersecurity group had pushed out several underperforming salespeople. They are now picking up examples of salespeople, who have been historically successful over a 5+ year period, that are leaving due to increased quotas, reduced territories, etc. This does not bode well since these are the same reps that need to be trained / motivated to focus on management’s new plans to concentrate on the SASE and security operations segments as growth slows in the network security market.

Edition: 173

- 10 November, 2023


Cyberark (CYBR)

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

Feedback from channel contacts on the company's core PAM solution continues to be strong, while CYBR is also the standout beneficiary of the MGM breach. Pipeline generation is healthy. Sales Pulse has heard examples of reps “sitting on deals” to push into the next quarter… always a good sign. Some resellers they talked to shared that CYBR encouraged them to get their SE’s trained and certified on the new CYBR Workforce and Identity offerings, but so far these resellers, have not seen much professional services business based on this investment. Elsewhere, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Okta all look solid, while Fortinet and Tenable have the softest channel sentiment.

Edition: 171

- 13 October, 2023


Palo Alto (PANW)

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR’s latest channel checks reveal surprising weakness - although PANW still has time left until the close of its fiscal year, SPR notes that it has been quite a while since they picked up weak checks, even mid quarter. Interestingly, their checks on Fortinet have been more positive. So what is happening at PANW? Possible factors include 1) pushback by customers against multiple significant price hikes, 2) in this macro environment, big deals are easy targets for delay, 3) SPR has picked up numerous examples of complaints about the firm's Tech Support.

Edition: 165

- 21 July, 2023


Advanced AI: Sink or swim time for cybersecurity vendors

Technology

Blueshift Research

How are AI advancements and hype affecting the cybersecurity industry? What are data security vendors doing with AI/ML and cybersecurity automation, and can they protect their market from the major cloud operators with their investments in AI-driven security for their own platforms? During the interviews conducted by Blueshift, industry sources were also asked how they would play the sector near to mid-term and out over time. Companies discussed include Amazon, CrowdStrike, Cisco, CyberArk, Fortinet, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Okta, Palo Alto and Zscaler.

Edition: 158

- 14 April, 2023


Giant layoffs loom as Tech firms face customer budget freezes

Blueshift Research

Blueshift’s IT sector sources are pointing at Oracle’s plan to cut c.30k jobs as the crack in the dam that is going to trigger a resizing of workforces across all of tech - as one recruitment executive said, “They have literally been making up jobs for the past several years to beat each other to talent. It had nothing to do with rightsizing. It was a competition to impress investors.” Sources were unanimous that earnings forecasts for the rest of the year across most vendors in all verticals of DIY enterprise networking are going to be poor. Companies covered include Arista Networks, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Dell, Fortinet, IBM, Palo Alto and Zscaler.

Edition: 140

- 22 July, 2022


Security software earnings quality comparison

Technology

Behind the Numbers

BTN’s earnings quality comparison on six of the major security software players (Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks, Okta, Fortinet, Zscaler and CrowdStrike) examines factors such as relative dependence on stock options and policies regarding capitalised software, sales commissions, network depreciation, and aggressiveness of non-GAAP adjustments. The report ranks the company from most to least aggressive.

Edition: 137

- 10 June, 2022


Further acceleration in cyber security; other areas of IT spending are mixed

Technology

Sales Pulse Research

SPR's preliminary survey results report strong momentum in Q1, and the majority see continued, or accelerated growth for the rest of the year - consistent with previous views and recent reports, those Security Vendors most called out as seeing strong growth are Palo Alto, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and SentinelOne. Also consistent with views from last quarter, vendors with improving checks include Tenable, Ping Identity and Check Point. In contrast, SaaS vendors are having to work much harder to achieve their goals - SPR’s channels noted that SaaS projects were among those that were being pushed out.

Edition: 134

- 29 April, 2022