Rapidly detecting meaningful language changes in 10Qs / 10Ks
HII: Takeover interest? The following wording has been removed from its 2022 10K vs. last year, "These provisions may discourage acquisition proposals or delay or prevent a change in control, which could reduce our stock price". General Motors: China rethink? “Pursuing opportunities in the Chinese market is an important component of our global growth strategy”, has now been removed from its 10K. ServiceNow: Brighter growth rate outlook; dividends set to resume; strategic transactions? US Steel: Covenant concerns; customer payment delays? Brinker International: Missing performance targets.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Sean Maher adds Geely to his autonomous driving thematic basket which also includes Denso, Renesas and General Motors. Sean notes that Geely is planning a 2024 commercial Level 4 self-driving launch (much sooner than consensus expectations). He is seeking more China exposure this year - the country is starting to lead in automated deployment and local stocks have derated dramatically despite world class IP. On the big question re. whether Level 4+ autonomy needs Lidar - Sean would continue to bet on ‘belt and braces’ hardware redundancy winning and the Chinese crashing the cost of Lidar sensors as they scale up.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Don’t get run over by this IPO - the proposed $80bn valuation is equivalent to the Mkt/Cap of General Motors and implies it will sell 3m vehicles in 2030, nearly four times the number of Tesla vehicles produced over the past 12 months. RIVN has yet to manufacture a meaningful number of vehicles and competes with well-capitalised EV upstarts as well as incumbents which have decades of experience and multi-billion dollar plans to expand EV production. The stock is worth $13bn at best (84% downside).
Edition: 122
- 29 October, 2021
CarMax (KMX)
Consumer Discretionary
The next General Motors? If GM can compete with Tesla, why can’t KMX compete with Carvana and become the largest online auto retailer? Management has set a goal of delivering $33bn in annual sales in Fiscal 2026 (~2m cars) which Northcoast believe could result in earnings as high as $12 per share. Shares to rerate higher as the benefits of its omni-channel strategy become more fully appreciated.
Edition: 110
- 14 May, 2021
Nikola (NKLA)
Industrials
Battle Road’s initiation report includes a complete product line assessment, details on NKLA’s manufacturing partnerships, as well as a concise look at the controversy surrounding its initial and modified agreement with General Motors. The report also provides an overview of the battery/fuel cell electric truck industry and a list of unanswered questions stemming from their research, which provide a useful framework for monitoring and evaluating prospects.
Edition: 108
- 16 April, 2021