Consumer Discretionary
HOG features as one of the top short candidates in Two Rivers’ Declining Business Model. Sales have fallen at an accelerating rate since the Jun 23 quarter. Sales per employee are at previous lows of $912k per employee. Margins have given up their post-Covid bounce. SG&A was being cut through Mar 22, then increased on upbeat expectations that did not pan out and is being cut again. Unlevered FCF appears to be recovering but on unsustainable working capital liquidation. EBITDA is declining and the company needs to make its capex. Leverage has risen post-Covid with maturities every year until 2030. At the last earnings release, guidance was weak and the stock fell.
Edition: 187
- 31 May, 2024
Exploiting Special Situations in Your Equity Strategy
The Edge CEO & Founder Jim Osman, who flagged a big contrarian call in Harley-Davidson (+98% gain) and the king of SPACs Playboy (+425%), will be pitching his next big call live at the MoneyShow (Fri, 11th June) in Orlando, Florida. Interested in hearing the next idea? Click below to set up a call and benefit from catalyst ideas that consistently show excess returns. The Edge will also be hosting a Spinoff Webinar (Thurs, 24th June) - How to Play Profitable Spinoffs that The Street Misses. Click here for further details.
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021