H&M (HMB SS) Sweden

Consumer Discretionary

Woozle Research

Q1 channel checks reveal weaker-than-expected SSS growth in Europe (+0.35% Y/Y vs. consensus of +2.65%). While 50% of surveyed store managers reported positive Y/Y revenue growth, driven by new seasonal collections and effective in-store promotions, 30% of stores experienced declines due to competitive pressures and adverse weather conditions, particularly in markets like the UK and Czech Republic. 40% of managers noted declining foot traffic as a headwind, particularly in Eastern and Northern Europe. Seasonal inventory challenges were also cited by 20% of respondents, affecting sales performance in some regions, especially in Switzerland and the UK.

- 21 March, 2025

Next (NXT LN) UK

Consumer Discretionary

Woozle Research

Woozle upgrades the stock to Buy based on findings from their recent surveys - store managers report LFL sales growth of +3.5% in 2Q23 vs. the same period last year with sales rising sharply in recent weeks after a muted start to the quarter. 40% of respondents report sales are trending ahead of internal targets (with only 10% underperforming). This is a much stronger performance than other names under Woozle's coverage such as H&M and Superdry. Promotional activity is unchanged due to healthy inventory levels and strong sell-out trends. While summer ranges have been particularly strong, menswear has seen stagnant sales trends due to rising competition.

- 09 June, 2023

European & US short ideas

Vision Research

Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.

- 26 May, 2023

A new $3bn+ M/Cap European industrial short

Industrials

Vision Research

Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.

- 17 February, 2023

H&M (HMB SS) Sweden

Consumer Discretionary

Woozle Research

Downgrades to Short / Sell based on findings from their recent surveys with store managers - Woozle’s H&M channel checks were much more negative than other names in their fashion coverage, many of whom outperformed targets over the Christmas period. Forecasts 1Q23 LFL sales growth of 0% y/y with 24% of respondents reporting that sales are falling below internal targets. This represents a meaningful deterioration in target meeting performances q/q as the latest product releases underwhelm customers. Furthermore, the number of customers trading down to cheaper ranges has increased considerably q/q as the cost-of-living crisis deepens.

- 03 February, 2023