Hermes (RMS FP) France

Consumer Discretionary

Smart Insider

Laurent Mommeja (Senior Officer) bought 1,000 shares at €2,088 on Aug 4th, spending €2.1m. This is his fourth purchase >€1m. His other large buys (May 17 at €454, Dec 20 at €826 and Jun 22 at €970) have all been well-timed. It is interesting to see another large purchase from him at over twice the price he paid 3 years ago. The stock has declined post-H1 results and Mommeja appears to be taking advantage of the pullback. Smart Insider has trading history on him back to Oct 10 and their prior +1 ranks (highest conviction rating) in Dec 20 and Jun 22 were both driven by his purchases.

- 08 August, 2025

Multinationals in China: Consumer caution persists

86Research

A year after the pro-growth signalling from Beijing, most consumer sector multinationals still report subdued household spending in China. Elevated household savings and low consumer confidence - echoed by both luxury and FMCG players - suggest that the recovery has yet to reach full momentum. Weakness is most apparent in discretionary categories, particularly luxury and F&B. Kering reported high-20% sales declines among Chinese consumers, while Unilever and AB InBev flagged weak foodservice volumes. Even Hermes conceded that momentum is lacking and noted a "wait-and-see" mindset, despite modest growth. Looking ahead, unless a shock-and-awe stimulus package arrives, 86Research expects a gradual, selective recovery rather than a broad consumption rebound.

- 08 August, 2025

LVMH (MC FP) France

Consumer Discretionary

AIR Capital

In the past 20 years, Pierre-Olivier Essig has never seen as many red flags surrounding LVMH as he does today. In addition to terrible 4Q24 numbers, he highlights succession change, brand fatigue, low value retention, supply chain ethics, designer casting mistakes, unjustified pricing, as well as specific issues attached to almost every division. Pierre faced huge resistance from clients 12 months ago when he advised selling LVMH shares at €822, however, that proved to be the correct decision and in Oct, he then upgraded the stock to Buy after it fell through €600. With the share price having recently moved back above €700, Pierre turned bearish once again. He expects Hermes m/cap will exceed LVMH’s within the next year.

- 07 March, 2025

Luxury downside

Consumer Discretionary

DayByDay

The MSCI Europe Textiles, Apparel and Luxury Goods Index accelerated to the downside last week - Valérie Gastaldy points out that prices have already fallen below the 38% Fibo since 2022 (at 1325). Should the index correct the rally since 2020, the most reasonable target would be 1207. However, should we be correcting the move since 2009, then the target would be 1020. Re. individual stocks, Hermes is trying to break below its summer lows and the next level where Valérie would consider buying LVMH is at €665. She has set major medium-term support for Moncler at €53.3, but the stock is weaker than the other two and can more easily fall significantly lower if the other two do break equivalent supports.

- 15 September, 2023

Hermes (RMS FP) France

Consumer Discretionary

Sandalwood Advisors

Sandalwood estimates Hermes APAC ex Japan revenue (EUR) y/y to accelerate to high-end of consensus in 2Q23, outperforming other luxury players with consistent strength. Hermes shows solid performance in Greater China at high double-digits on yo2y basis, partly due to easy comps, but mainly thanks to its brand positioning as an ultra-luxury brand targeting the wealthiest consumers whose spending has remained robust. HK and Macau also saw strong sales, nearly double 2019’s pre-Covid level, driven by wealthy travellers and inflation.

- 23 June, 2023

FTSEurofirst 80 Index: Bullish & Bearish Themes

Technical Analysis

Messels

Recycling and Renewable Energy stocks such as Umicore, Vestas Wind and Siemens Gamesa are rallying from medium term support. Selective Seafood and Tobacco stocks remain defensive including SalMar, Mowi and Scandinavian Tobacco. Banks are generally rallying in ranges; favours CaixaBank and Sabadell which have already broken out and extend relative bases.

Industrials have broken uptrends and are now losing relative momentum such as Schneider, Atlas Copco and Alfa Laval. Luxury Goods renew their 4-month price and relative tops including Pandora, LVMH, Dior and Hermes. IT Hardware and Semiconductors renew their 5-month price and relative tops; SeSa, BE Semiconductor, Infineon and Nordic Semiconductor are highlighted.

- 27 May, 2022

Hermes (RMS FP) France

Consumer Discretionary

Woozle Research

Woozle’s primary research finds Hermes stores outperforming consensus forecasts - 59% of Store Managers interviewed in the last 90-days reported that they were beating revenue targets for the current quarter. Forecasts 17-20% Y/Y growth driven by strong performances across key markets in Asia and Europe. Customer spending is surging with higher UPT and uptrading trends as limited edition products and new collection ranges are proving to be particularly popular. Also noteworthy, they seem to be less impacted with inventory issues vs. the likes of Gucci (Kering) and Moncler.

- 10 December, 2021