Consumer Discretionary
Continuing with Fighting Financials thematic view of a downturn in pockets of the global construction and DIY sector, they recently added HWDN to their list of equity short ideas. Business fundamentals continue to deteriorate with revenue growth slowing and a steady decline in margins. For 2025, they are concerned by several headwinds facing the UK economy and expect demand for large “big box” discretionary purchases to remain weak. While management has already guided down market expectations regarding the group’s FY24e print, Fighting Financials sees some risk of a negative revision to the 1H25 outlook too.
Edition: 202
- 10 January, 2025
FTSE 100 Technical Review
Messels' weekly Stocks & Sectors report highlights continued improvement in Services, Media and Banks, while reducing exposure to Consumer sectors. New Buys include Ashtead (broken out of 2-year price and relative ranges) and Barclays (renews the uptrend and has broken out of 8-year price and relative ranges). They have also closed longs in Whitbread (lacks momentum in the short term), Imperial Brands (maintains the uptrend but is reaching the top of the relative range), Howden Joinery (lost momentum and developed short term price and relative tops) and Marks & Spencer (reaching medium term price and relative resistance). Following these changes, Messels’ FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio now consists of 16 stocks.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
FTSE 100 stocks & sector review
Messels currently has 19 long positions in their FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio having closed their position in Rio Tinto after it pulled back in the five-year range and broke medium term relative support. They remain overweight Retail and in particular, Howden, Tesco and Marks & Spencer which maintain uptrends and JD Sports and Kingfisher which renew base formations. Other stocks highlighted in their technical review this week include Informa, which has rallied back to the highs and rallies from relative uptrend support; while M&G finds 18-month uptrend support and develops a base at the bottom of the relative range.
Edition: 191
- 26 July, 2024