European & UK insider trading trends
Last month saw 446 insider purchases (individuals) from 346 companies, spending a total of €2.2bn. Smart Insider upgraded 15+ stocks, meaning they currently have 70+ ranked stocks and just 2- ranked stocks. Upgrades were spread out among 10 countries with Germany leading. From a sector and industry perspective, sentiment was bullish in Basic Materials and Energy (Sell/Buy Ratio 0.28) and slightly bearish in Technology (S/B Ratio 1.05). The Consumer Sectors (Discretionary & Staples) led upgrades with a combined 8+. Positive ranked stocks based on Jan insider purchases include Syensqo, Colruyt, Technip Energies, Hugo Boss, Pirelli and Ebro Foods.
Edition: 179
- 09 February, 2024
Hugo Boss (BOSS GR) Germany
Consumer Discretionary
FY23 guidance (sales +5%, EBIT +10% Y/Y) is overly cautious and should be revised upwards mid-year (AIR forecasts sales +10%, EBIT +15%), following strong 1Q23 activity, new price hikes of +5% in May 2023 (inflation pass-through), and re-opening of China. Active management of store portfolio should reduce operating costs to 19% of sales by 2025 (vs. 26% last year) and lift gross margins above 62%. The company’s 2025 targets (sales of €4bn, EBIT margin of 12%) should be reached in 2023. TP €90 (35% upside).
AIR’s 2023 Top 10 European Best Ideas Portfolio was +19% in 1Q23 and has outperformed the Euro Stoxx 50 by +205% since launching in 2012.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
Apparel Retailers: Store Checks, Promotional Summaries & Key Data Points
Consumer Discretionary
LVMH - less enthusiastic when it comes to pre-Fall product, perhaps too much use of animal prints on classic shapes? Also wondering if the move back to smaller cross body bags creates a lower AUR mix shift for the industry.
Hugo Boss - summer sale tells the story. According to SW Retail’s proprietary data ~60% of total SKUs are on discount this season (US 63%, UK 58%, Germany 58%) vs. 27% for Ralph Lauren and 36% for Tommy Hilfiger.
Burberry - finally serious about promotions being a thing of the past. Recent price increases (Mid to HSD %) have gone largely unnoticed, but handbags continue to disappoint vs. competitors (lack of bright colours).
Edition: 114
- 09 July, 2021