All that glitters is gold

Global Mining Research

Gold has been setting new highs through 2025 as the best performing major commodity. The music will come to an end, but David Radcliffe says that until that happens, a spot gold price over US$3,800/oz will generate some extraordinary returns. He examines the impact that spot prices could make to a sector that has already benefited from a robust 18 months. The 2026 consensus gold price is ~US$470/oz below spot, implying further upside if prices are maintained. On David’s expectations, spot prices into 2026 could lift sector EBITDA another 30% after an expected 67% lift in 2025. His covered gold stocks trade at a discount with spot P/NPV5 of 0.87x, or an implied gold price of ~US$3,330/oz, a 13% discount. There remains a value argument for gold miners, plus earnings momentum. David’s preferred exposures remain Agnico Eagle, Kinross and Northern Star of the seniors, and IAMGOLD, Equinox and Alamos of the more leveraged intermediates.

- 03 October, 2025

Gold: Are buybacks a fad?

Global Mining Research

In the face of meaningful cash surpluses, miners are repurchasing shares in record amounts. Some 40% of the Global Mining Research team’s gold coverage have active buybacks in 2025E, equating to ~US$3.7B of cash returns, a record level for the sector and equivalent to ~US$110/GEO. The impact on share prices is subject to debate. The team find that at spot gold the 2025E FCF yield of the sector after expected dividends and buybacks is ~4.6% (and ~8.5% in 2026E). So, shareholder return potential is still to the upside whilst gold prices remain elevated. Stocks least progressed (~20% or less) with buybacks include Carlyle Group, OceanaGold, Barrick Gold, Kinross Gold and Agnico Eagle Mines. Stocks trading at larger discounts to 2025E spot FCF include IAMGOLD, Torex Gold, Endeavour Mining, Equinox Gold and Wesdome Gold Mines. Preferred stocks of these are Kinross Gold, Agnico Eagle Mines, IAMGOLD and Equinox Gold.

- 16 May, 2025

Gold: Higher prices, higher costs

Global Mining Research

As markets focus on record spot prices in 2025, price-linked costs and general mining inflation are also driving operating costs to record highs. In 2025 gold miner FCF costs are expected to reach a record ~US$2,465/oz, in line with inflation expectations. Positively, gold prices are rising faster and the 2025E FCF spot margin at ~US$750/oz is near double the last high in 2020. Gold miners (covered by Global Mining Research) with the lowest FCF costs in 2025 are Lundin Gold, Wesdome, Kinross and Agnico. Stocks with improvement in FCF costs from 2024 to 2025 are IAMGOLD, Torex and Equinox. Preferred gold stocks are BUY-rated Agnico (delivery and lower-risk portfolio), Kinross (risk reduction and execution), Equinox (transitions from project development to cash generation), IAMGOLD (Côté ramp up and derisking) and Lundin Gold (FDN continues to outperform).

- 02 May, 2025

High beta gold stocks outperforming peers

Global Mining Research

The Global Mining Research team research the correlation of stocks to the gold price and the beta of those stocks. The stocks with consistently high beta to the gold price over the past five years are Alamos Gold, Genesis Minerals, IAMGOLD, Kinross Gold, Lundin Gold and Torex Gold Resources. Stocks with a weak beta to gold price over the past five years are B2Gold, Centerra Gold, Endeavour Mining, Barrick Gold, Newmont and SSR Mining (except 2025), each with mine or management issues, heightened risk or M&A troubles. Market preference for gold stocks appears to be more driven by investor perception rather than quantifiable valuation or sensitivity measures, and investors are preferring stocks with “issues” and aren’t seeking deeply discounted cheap stocks. Preferred gold stocks are BUY-rated Agnico (delivery and lower-risk portfolio), Kinross (risk reduction and execution), Equinox (transitions from project development to cash generation), IAMGOLD (Côté ramp up and derisking) and Lundin Gold (FDN continues to outperform).

- 18 April, 2025

Digging for gold

Global Mining Research

A spate of new gold projects is about to be delivered after a period of subdued development, with nine new projects in David Radclyffe’s coverage ready to contribute to production over the next 18 months. With the potential to add over 2.5Moz AuEq per year by 2026, the projects will see a meaningful increase in production for the companies concerned. All projects are forecast with a by-product AISC below US$1,000/oz, offering healthy margins ahead. Overall, Côté is the most impressive of the new projects in terms of valuation, impact on the owner (IAMGOLD), and jurisdiction, despite the rocky road on the way. David favours companies with proven reliability to deliver together with lower risk, such as Agnico and Northern Star, and those with slightly higher risk, including B2Gold, Centerra, IAMGOLD and Perseus.

- 14 June, 2024

ESG in gold mining

Metals Focus

Metals Focus’ new annual report, The Gold ESG Focus, is due for release in July. The extensive report compares a wide range of senior gold producers, including the likes of Barrick Gold, Endeavour, IAMGOLD and others. Looking at topics such as emissions, water, waste, biodiversity and health & safety, the report features “apple versus apple” ESG comparisons for the included companies. Please contact us to find out more.

- 27 May, 2022