EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

ISS (ISS DC) Denmark

Industrials

Iron Blue Financials

Iron Blue initiates coverage with a score of 29/60, which is top quartile (fertile ground for shorting). They highlight elevated use of provisions accounting (22% of FY22 PBT adj) and increased factoring of receivables (DKK1.3bn, up from FY21’s DKK1.1bn). FY22 profits benefitted from DKK122m Covid-19 grants and DKK15m net bad debtor provision release. Iron Blue also notes an unusual organic growth calculation methodology. Regarding governance, they flag overboarding by the Chair (9 other board positions), internal succession of both CEO and CFO, Audit & Risk Committee composition out of line with best practice, and above average non-audit payments to EY. In Iron Blue's report, they discuss a range of areas where disclosure could be improved.

Edition: 176

- 22 December, 2023


ISS (ISS DC) Denmark

Industrials

TT Equity Research

Manipulating its way to reaching targets - delivery on near-term objectives (predominantly FCF) has been driven by management’s "creative solutions". Competition, cost and wage inflation should maintain pressure on profitability. Simple cost analysis shows that sustainably lifting the operating margin towards the targeted 4% seems impossible unless costs are capitalised, provisions released or costs are reclassified to “other income and expenses”. Cash generation has been driven by deteriorating the quality of working capital. This will become increasingly difficult. At some stage stretched payables should reverse which will further increase debt. 50%+ downside.

Edition: 142

- 19 August, 2022


ISS (ISS DC) Denmark

Industrials

TT Equity Research

Q3 organic growth falls short, but once again management knows what the market demands by upgrading its margin and FCF outlook - Teun Teeuwisse continues to believe that ISS is a weak company with low profitability in a non-growing (even shrinking) market with high price competition. FCF generation was and remains unsustainable and eventually will lead to high cash outflows. In spite of all the artificial cash flow improvements, debt remains high and a serious issue.

Edition: 123

- 12 November, 2021