EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

ITV (ITV LN) UK

Communications

Iron Blue Financials

Following publication of its FY23 annual report, Iron Blue increases their ITV score to 31/60 (still top decile) from 29/60 to reflect: 1) FY23 cost strip outs hit a decade high. 2) Capitalisations of programme & other rights expanded +10% Y/Y, also to a decade high. 3) Increased use of provisions accounting. 4) DB pensions liability discount rate of 4.75% vs. 3.8% average. 5) A new contingent liability relating to the UK CMA investigation into non-sport TV content production and broadcasting. They also note that five of management’s principal risks were deemed to have increased Y/Y and FY23’s Oracle Fusion IT platform launch saw various processes and controls not operating as anticipated.

Edition: 185

- 03 May, 2024


Cranswick (CWK LN) UK

Consumer Staples

ROCGA Research

ROCGA has recently launched a product that ranks companies using their own CFROI based DCF valuation modelling tools. The list contains the UK’s largest companies ranked according to warranted value, the most undervalued to the most overvalued. CWK appears in the top part of the list, along with Sainsbury, Imperial Brands and ITV. Among others, Sage and Ocado appear at the bottom. ROCGA also covers the US and European markets, with over 2,150 companies in total.

Edition: 168

- 01 September, 2023


ITV plc (ITV)

Communications

Iron Blue Financials

A score of 27/60 is top quartile overall (fertile ground for shorting) and joint highest (with WPP) in Ed Steele’s Media sector coverage. Accounting red flags include management discretion within revenue recognition, elevated levels of stripped out costs, possible net debt adjustments (restricted cash, earnouts, contingent liabilities), JV related party transactions and use of non-GAAP headline measures. Ed notes several areas where disclosure could be improved, including the segmental split, amortisation charge and contingent liabilities. He also highlights that eleven of management’s fifteen principal risks were deemed to have increased yoy.

Edition: 145

- 30 September, 2022


TV Companies: Is the Secular Decline Thesis Overdone?

Communications

Willis Welby

Following a review of six of Europe's TV companies Willis Welby argue that not only is their reach to consumers materially better than the long-term bears would have you believe, but these companies all look extraordinarily cheap! Willis Welby continue to be particularly bullish on ITV - positive momentum and it is likely to make a mockery of an implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of barely 30. While TF1 also looks very interesting following its proposed merger with Metropole TV.

Edition: 113

- 25 June, 2021