InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

While INPST’s latest trading update may not have contained any financial data, it does appear as if the company has once again managed to beat expectations. Particularly pleasing is the further acceleration of growth in Poland, which suggests INPST has outpaced the growth of the overall market. Meanwhile, growth in the UK remains spectacular. B2C volumes are still relatively low. However, the recently announced collaboration with Yodel (in Locker-to-Door deliveries) will also provide INPST with access to over 12,000 Collect+ pickup points, thus establishing a truly nationwide network of OOH points, which offers a solid basis for further volume growth going forward.

- 10 January, 2025

InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

Since the IDEA! issued their previous in-depth report on INPST, the share price has nearly trebled. Against this background, they argued the time had come to make an assessment whether all the drivers they referred to then are reflected in the share price now or that the stock could have more in store for its shareholders. For that purpose, the IDEA! has looked at the latest trends in e-commerce and how these could affect INPST. They have also taken a deep dive into the main markets where the company is active. Their DCF model points towards a fair value per share in the mid-20s. This represents a premium of almost 50% vs. the current share price.

- 31 May, 2024

InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

INPST announced that it has acquired a 30% stake in Menzies (with an option to acquire the remaining 70%) - the IDEA! believes the deal offers several advantages, the most important of which is that it will help INPST to accelerate its growth in the UK, both geographically (i.e., outside of the three metropolitan areas in which it is currently active) and in new market segments (predominantly B2B and B2C). While they do have some concerns re. Menzies’ high exposure to low-growth markets and its lower margins as well as its higher cyclicality, the call option will give management up to three years’ time to see how that will develop.

- 04 August, 2023

InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

Following the news that Czech investment group PPF has increased its stake in INPST to 16.75% (with an option to buy a further 15% stake from Advent), analysts at the IDEA! wonder if we could be seeing the creation of a new giant in transport and logistics. PPF is no stranger in e-commerce and last mile logistics and nor are its partners (includes the two Czech billionaires, Daniel Křetínský and Patric Tkáč). Consolidation within the sector looks set to continue and by combining the activities of INPST, Packeta (believed to be for sale) and those of EP Logistics, this would create a very dominant player in central and south-eastern Europe.

- 09 June, 2023

InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

Beating expectations - 3Q22 performance in Poland was particularly impressive (vol. growth accelerated to 26%) given the economic environment but also because it shows that INPST is relatively immune from the increasing competition in APMs. Prospects in France also look upbeat (roll-out of APMs, plus the launch of the 24hr service, which can really give a boost to B2C volumes, a segment INPST is still only very modestly present). Once again, the IDEA! were keen to stress that the relative cost advantage of APMs vs. to-door delivery can become an even stronger growth driver going forward.

- 11 November, 2022

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam

the IDEA!

InPost (INPST) - Impressive 1H22 but best is yet to come. OOH solutions are consumer centric, environmentally friendly and above all cheap. In view of the Green Deal and ESG reporting which has become mandatory for a lot of InPost’s clients, minimising carbon footprint is becoming an increasingly important driver re. transformation of last mile delivery.
Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY) - Further job cuts announced (this time in Canada) as management continues to target improvements in the profitability of JET's various units. Positive stance maintained.
Philips (PHIA) - VEB demands €16bn in damages re. the apnoea affair. More claims to follow. Shares to remain under pressure.

- 16 September, 2022

InPost (INPST NA) Netherlands

Industrials

the IDEA!

In the box seat - one of the best positioned companies when it comes to a switch towards OOH delivery. Previously critical of INPST’s overpriced IPO, the IDEA revisits the investment case in this 71-page deep-dive with a focus on cost inflation for the last mile which is particularly affecting the to-door segment. With the shares trading at less than one-third of their all-time high the current valuation looks very attractive. Investors should not rule out a takeover which would offer further upside to the IDEA's TP of €8.91 (40% upside).

- 27 May, 2022