EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Investec (INVP LN) UK

Financials

Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth’s Buy call (July 2021) has yielded a return of ~60% but given fundamental and technical momentum remain positive (PH Score™ 8.0), Paul sees no reason to alter his constructive stance. Investors should focus on medium-term profitability targets driven by positive changes in efficiency metrics which would make current valuations attractive. If the mid-point of the ROE target of 12-16% is met, the current PBV of 0.83x is too low given the Earnings Yield would be 17% (vs. 12.2% currently), while also remembering that Standard Bank Group acquired Liberty for >1x BV last year.

Edition: 143

- 02 September, 2022


Investec (INL SJ) SJ

Financials

Creative Portfolios

Deposit base and Book Value do not reflect medium-term targets - the current PBV of 0.59x is way too low, especially given Standard Life’s recent acquisition of Liberty for >1x BV. The South African Deposit base is (roughly) rated in line with FirstRand which leaves the UK operation (47% of Deposits, 46% of Credit) valued at next to nothing. The current ROE stands at 5%, management aims to hit 11-15% in the UK and 15-18% in South Africa over the next few years (achievable though cost-cutting and greater digitalisation/technology adoption). Even a pre-pandemic ROE of 12% puts the shares on a PER of just 5x. Shares are far too cheap.

Edition: 115

- 23 July, 2021