Real Estate
The fundamental back drop has weakened significantly for this non-cycle-tested business - Rob Simone argues the SFR industry has been a beneficiary of a tight housing market and low interest rates over the last decade. He sees a huge deceleration in SSRev coming next year with bad debt as a percentage of revenue returning to pandemic levels. He models topline growth of 3-4% and 7-8% expense growth - there is no way that INVH is going to grow SSNOI at 7.5%; Street forecasts are way too high. INVH is a consensus long, over-owned name, and Rob sees the REIT as a potential “source of funds” into long duration.
Edition: 150
- 09 December, 2022