EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Japan Tobacco (2914)

Consumer Staples

LightStream Research

Russia exposure is not as much as markets feared and there’s upside to DPS guidance - 1Q22 was stronger than expected with revenue and operating profit surpassing consensus by 5.2% and 20% respectively despite the Russia / Ukraine war. Although the company has maintained the semi-annual dividend at ¥75 per share, Oshadhi Kumarasiri sees room for ~¥25 per share upside to JT’s FY22 DPS guidance. With operating profit expected hit ¥534bn, the stock should trade above ¥4,000 per share, indicating upside of over 80%.

Edition: 135

- 13 May, 2022


Philip Morris International (PM)

Consumer Staples

TobaccoIntelligence

Considers leaving the Russian market as it scales down operations - PMI cancels the launch of its heated tobacco device Iqos Iluma in Russia. It has also withdrawn plans to manufacture over 20bn Terea sticks for its device, losing $150m. Last month PMI, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco announced they would have limited investments in Russia, continuing their sales and domestic production. Imperial Brands was the only company halting domestic Russian production and sales & marketing activity across the country.

Edition: 133

- 14 April, 2022


Big Tobacco’s RRPs showed positive performance in 2021 with promising signs for the future

Consumer Staples

TobaccoIntelligence

Philip-Morris Int. reported a positive performance of Iqos Iluma in Japan and Switzerland, with significant growth in its heated tobacco portfolio, especially in the Middle East, Africa, South and Southeast Asia. Likewise, Japan Tobacco will prioritise its heated tobacco portfolio by 2027, while British American Tobacco’s revenue from its new products category rose by 42.4%, boosted by higher modern oral products sales. Swedish Match’s sales increased by 11%, driven by the smoke-free product segment, with solid growth in the US and Scandinavia for nicotine pouches and plans to invest further throughout 2022.

Edition: 130

- 04 March, 2022


Japan Tobacco International (2914)

Consumer Staples

TobaccoIntelligence

Focusing on Ploom X - JTI reported a good performance from its reduced-risk products for the first nine months in its domestic market. JTI said that it would “strive to secure share growth” of its HnB device Ploom X in Japan for the rest of the year, which is receiving “encouraging feedback from consumers”. The company is very optimistic about the future of its heated tobacco portfolio despite the global semi-conductor shortage impacting the market worldwide.

Edition: 123

- 12 November, 2021