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Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Jumbo (BELA GA) Greece

Consumer Discretionary

ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece flags growing competitive risks as Dutch retailer, Action, reveals plans to open its first store in Romania later this year. This marks the first time a similar, yet more aggressive, retail chain is entering into one of Jumbo’s markets (Romania contributes 22% to group sales). Action offers 6,000 products across 14 categories that compete with Jumbo's, with about two-thirds of these items priced under €2.00. Furthermore, investors should not rule out the possibility that Action may choose to enter Greece, where Jumbo operates 53 out of its 89 stores, given Action has identified existing and potential markets with the capacity to add an additional 4,700 stores.

Edition: 208

- 04 April, 2025


Jumbo (BELA GA) Greece

Consumer Discretionary

ResearchGreece

The Greek retailer’s heavyweight Dec trading update showed group sales growing +9% y/y, pushing FY23 sales +14% y/y, or +200bps above company guidance. Quite a remarkable performance considering a) 2 stores (out of the 53 in Greece) remained closed during Q4 (floods); and b) the group has been strategically reducing prices in recent months. With net cash at €431m, management announced a €0.60 DPS. While investors should keep an eye on container freight costs (up 90%+ in the last few weeks), ResearchGreece remains very bullish on the stock. Trades at (2024E) 10.1x EPS (x-cash); 7.5x EBITDA; with a 5.9% dividend yield. TP €33 (25% upside).

Edition: 178

- 26 January, 2024


Greek Equities: Impressive gains YTD

ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece’s base case scenario is materialising - Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. With Greek equities +c.35% YTD they provide an update on the investment case for all the stocks under their coverage including:

Jumbo (BELA GA) - Working for the right reasons, namely valuation, balance sheet, management, business model, growth and dividends. The biggest risk: EU-China geopolitical issues affecting the firm's 70% merchandise sourcing.
Mytilineos (MYTIL GA) - Rating seems wrong, but concerns seem right, namely cash flow generation, corporate governance, energy crisis gains, cyclicality and low visibility. TP €17 (50% downside).
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH CY) - The best bank in Greece / Cyprus, worth >1.0x TBV based on RoTE >17% in 2023 (and >13% in 2025) and CoE of 12%. The first bank in the region to resume dividend payments (>8% next year). TP €5.7 (90% upside).

Edition: 164

- 07 July, 2023


Jumbo (BELA GA) Greece

Consumer Discretionary

ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece reiterates their Own It 'OI' recommendation forecasting significant upside following the H1 results. As always the messages were contradictory on guidance, revenue and net income, but ultimately Jumbo has a successful business model, strong balance sheet, cash flow generation and dividend policy. All currently priced at 6.9x EPS (x-cash), 4.6x EBITDA and 8% FCFE yield 2023E. They were able to announce a special dvidend of E0.38/share (2.7% yield).

Edition: 145

- 30 September, 2022


Jumbo (BELA GA) Greece

Consumer Discretionary

ResearchGreece

Following impressive FY21 results, ResearchGreece raise their 2022/2023/2024 net income estimates by +17%/+12%/+7% and increase their TP to €21.50 (40% upside) - the business model is working and they would rather weather the energy / geopolitics / inflation storm with a) a net cash balance sheet (25% of M/Cap); b) that trades at 8.1x EPS 2022E (ex-cash) and 5.5x EBITDA 2022; c) which continues to invest in the business (stores); d) will be paying a dividend yield of 5% - over any other Greek stocks.

Edition: 134

- 29 April, 2022