Delivery Hero (DHER GR) Germany
Consumer Discretionary
Following publication of the company’s FY24 annual report, Iron Blue’s DHER score of 30/60 remains top decile and fertile grounds for shorting. Stripped out costs remained elevated and materially exceeded FY24’s €48m PBT adj, while capitalisations expanded to 28% of total FY24 R&D expense from 20% in FY23. There were 2 changes to the group’s contingent liabilities disclosure: 1) a significant increase in the range of potential financial penalties from investigations into the legal status of riders to €440m-€770m; and 2) a new claim against Glovo Spain from Just Eat alleging unfair practices. Iron Blue also notes a reduction in Woowa’s goodwill impairment test margin assumption to 23% from 30% (albeit offset by a higher growth expectation).
Edition: 213
- 13 June, 2025
Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA) Netherlands
Communications
Although the IDEA! considers some parts of the arguments used by TWKY to support its upward guidance revision more credible than other parts, they believe it is not just based on wishful thinking - the tailwind the company has created for itself by means of last year’s rationalisation programme will last for at least another 2-3 quarters and any additional support from its commercial performance will provide further impetus. While the IDEA! still finds it hard to believe that management will find a solution for Grubhub in the near term (but expects a 'real' share buyback if they do!), at least the healthy balance sheet gives TKWY time to wait for a better opportunity.
Edition: 159
- 28 April, 2023
Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY NA) Netherlands
Communications
Based on the turmoil caused by the announced price increases and the delayed dynamics of price elasticity, Teun Teeuwisse’s view remains that the current positive profitability will not be lasting. This will be aggravated by the current macro conditions where consumers will increasingly cut back on services like food / grocery delivery. Meanwhile, Teun also sees little opportunity for TKWY to further increase income per order as this may have an accelerated impact on the existing contraction of orders.
Edition: 147
- 28 October, 2022
What’s New(s) in Amsterdam
InPost (INPST) - Impressive 1H22 but best is yet to come. OOH solutions are consumer centric, environmentally friendly and above all cheap. In view of the Green Deal and ESG reporting which has become mandatory for a lot of InPost’s clients, minimising carbon footprint is becoming an increasingly important driver re. transformation of last mile delivery.
Just Eat Takeaway (TKWY) - Further job cuts announced (this time in Canada) as management continues to target improvements in the profitability of JET's various units. Positive stance maintained.
Philips (PHIA) - VEB demands €16bn in damages re. the apnoea affair. More claims to follow. Shares to remain under pressure.
Edition: 144
- 16 September, 2022
FTSE Top 200 Weekly Technical Strategy
Stockcube’s Model Portfolio currently has 29 Longs (avg. gain +5%) and 18 Shorts (avg. gain +10.5%) - net position increases from 9% to 23%. Within sectors, F&B, Banks and Tobacco remain at the top of the price and relative range; Leisure reasserts downtrends; and Real Estate makes new relative lows, but becomes overextended. They recently opened longs in Beazley Group (tests medium term highs), Just Eat Takeaway (develops short term base) and TP ICAP (confirms short term price and relative base) along with a short in United Utilities (forms short term tops).
Edition: 144
- 16 September, 2022
Delivery Hero (DHER GR) Germany
Communications
Playing to the crowd - DHER has exited Japan and Germany and pledged to focus on reaching profits by 4Q22E. Arete believes management is looking to shore-up its equity value while eyeing its next acquisition target (Just Eat Takeaway would be Arete’s preferred choice). The stock is trading at its lowest multiple since IPO even though sales in 2H21 will be 4x higher than 1H20 and DHER is well positioned to sustain high growth (36% sales CAGR until ’25, 18% until ’30). TP €170 (+120% upside) based on blending a DCF until ’30 and a 10x ‘23E EV/Gross Profit multiple.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
Just Eat Takeaway.com (TKWY NA) Netherlands
Communications
Faces increased competition as Rocket enters the Dutch market and DoorDash targets Germany, another of TKWY’s key markets. To maintain market share, TKWY was already shifting further towards the loss-making own delivery side of the business. Now, with Rocket focused on marketplace revenues (offering lower commissions to restaurants to boost market share), TKWY is also being attacked on the cash generating side. These latest developments only strengthen Teun Teeuwisse's short thesis.
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021