Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano sees the disparity in valuation between AFRM and Klarna as more of a downside risk for AFRM than an upside opportunity for KLAR; the intense competition in the BNPL marketplace is a potential “banana skin” for its premium growth expectations and he believes that AFRM should lose some of its “scarcity value” as a near pure play on BNPL in view of KLAR’s listing. With regards to Victor’s recommendations on payments companies in general, he maintains Buy ratings on PagSeguro, Nexi and PayPal for their value credentials primarily and upgrades KakaoPay from Sell to Neutral, following its marked de-rating.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
Why smart money isn’t buying crypto stocks yet
Crypto stocks are unwinding sharply and some of the most hyped names are now down 30-50% from their highs. Markus Thielen says this isn’t just about short-term corrections - it’s about the deeper repricing of crypto’s equity narrative. Some names may still have room to fall, while others could be nearing high-conviction entry points. In June, Markus flagged that several crypto-related stocks were losing momentum, prompting his take-profit recommendation on Coinbase and warning that others could follow - notably Kakaopay, Metaplanet and Circle. Since then, the damage has been significant with all three names falling heavily. Valuations remain stretched - Circle still trades at a forward P/E of 153x, compared to 102x for Coinbase and 69x for Robinhood, leaving room for further downside. A 30% correction in Circle, or similarly in Kakaopay with its 128x P/E, would not be surprising.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
Ranking the winners and losers in Global Payments
Technology
Galliano's Financials Research
Victor Galliano introduces a proprietary payments scorecard, ranking companies based on weighted metrics including valuation, margins, EBITDA growth and valuation-to-growth. PagSeguro and Nexi remain top picks due to deep value characteristics and strong scorecard rankings. PayPal is upgraded to Buy, replacing Visa, supported by improved margins, stabilising net take rate and attractive valuation. Affirm is upgraded to Neutral, while KakaoPay is newly rated Sell. The stock has surged on stablecoin speculation, but Victor warns of underestimated regulatory risks, especially following Bank of Korea’s recent caution on digital assets.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
Technology
Share price slumps as Alipay cuts stake - in this note, Aequitas discuss the placement dynamics and run the deal through their ECM framework. It represents 20 days’ worth of ADV and hence, won’t be the easiest one to digest; KP is now likely to face a large overhang for several months. The timing of the share sale also seems odd since Ant could have reduced their stake when the share price was significantly higher. Despite the sell-off, KP is still trading at 21x FY22 and 15x FY23 EV/Revenue, which isn’t exactly cheap.
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022