How will China monetise AI differently?
China will be a close and capable AI follower, focusing on downstream implementation as the US focuses on upstream. This means the two will not run head-to-head encounters right away, and China can lead in the application of AGI in manufacturing and logistics. Its monetisation path will be more complex but can exist. However, as it stands, China is under-monetising AI vs the US. The Blue Lotus team estimate that consumer (2C) AI applications generated $2.0–3.5bn in the US and $0.3–0.5bn in China (excluding AI-enabled advertising and much of video AI). The US monetises AI globally, with global 2C revenues bringing in ~12x that of China. However, the gap will shorten significantly by 2030, in part by taking a lead on robotics+AGI. The team reiterate their top picks of Alibaba, Hesai, CATL and Kuaishou. Baidu stays as a sell.
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Technology
86Research attended Kuaishou’s Investor Day in Chengdu, where management highlighted how AI is boosting engagement and monetisation across its core community while scaling Kling AI. OneRec has already lifted time spent and GMV, with full rollout and ecommerce upgrades ahead. Management frames Kling as a sustainable long-term business in a US$140bn video market, though further proof points are still needed.
Edition: 219
- 05 September, 2025
Communications
Blue Lotus expects Kuaishou to report Q3 operating profit and net income above consensus (+5.9% and +7.0%, respectively) with revenue in line. The quarter has been marked by robust advertising (+21% Y/Y, driven by enriched content offerings such as summer Olympics, budget recovery from game and tourism advertisers, and improved ads matching capabilities from GAI), but moderated GMV growth due to weak consumption, leading to a decline in basket size. However, solid traffic growth has laid the basis for faster growth ahead. A reduction in e-commerce subsidies will also boost margins. Trading at 12x 2025 PE, Blue Lotus maintains their Buy rating and TP of HK$75 (50% upside).
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
1Q24 eCommerce Consumer Survey
Consumer Discretionary
While consumers are more pessimistic in RedTech’s latest quarterly survey, last order trends and grocery preferences highlight continued disruption under the surface of eCommerce. Short video continues to make clear gains with Douyin leading the way, while CGB and local service are again advancing. The gains for short video are almost exclusively driven by Douyin, with Kuaishou making no progress in recent surveys. PDD and Meituan are also making gains in their corners of the eCommerce landscape while Alibaba, the biggest incumbent, continues its inexorable decline.
Edition: 179
- 09 February, 2024
Communications
In Sumeet Singh’s earlier note in 2022, ‘Tencent investee selldown - The US$120bn global overhang’, he had looked at the group's overall investment portfolio. With two of its heavyweight investments having now been spun-out, Sumeet re-looks at Tencent’s shareholdings in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how. In terms of regulatory scrutiny, Pinduoduo is probably very high up on the list, alongside Kuaishou, Futu and PolicyBazaar. Announcements re. the divestments of JD.com and Meituan occurred towards the end of 2021 and 2022, respectively. Thus, some of these names could start to come under pressure by the last quarter.
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
With its positioning in the low-end and lower tier geographies, PDD has more opportunities to expand in eCommerce than Alibaba and JD.com, and the lowest risk of having somebody encroach on its turf. Douyin and Kuaishou only have niche eCommerce operations and will not focus on the average guy in some rural township. Modest improvements in trust among China’s middle class suggest PDD can steal some growth from its upmarket rivals, but no one believes it will enjoy the kind of success in the mid- and upper-tiers of the market that it does now in low-tier markets, and with ~900m customers that will continue to find value in that for the foreseeable future, that’s just fine.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
China eCommerce primary research report
Consumer Discretionary
Based on a variety of data and feedback from 27 eCommerce professionals, Westlake observed 1Q apparel sales recovered the strongest among online discretionary categories, cosmetics rebounded modestly but appliances sales softened slightly. Mar & Apr saw a marked acceleration in online discretionary category sales growth (except for skincare), likely due to further consumption recovery and a low base last Mar & Apr. Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Vipshop and Kuaishou eComm can likely at least meet 1Q China-related eComm sales or marketing revenue expectation. JD Retail had relatively weaker 1Q given the restructuring and soft appliance & general merchandise sales.
Edition: 160
- 12 May, 2023
iQIYI (IQ US), Bilibili (9626 HK), Kuaishou (1024 HK)
Based on Westlake’s proprietary analysis and survey of 19 large agencies and advertisers, IQ has outperformed its peers in recent quarters with strong content and can meet 4Q street revenue expectations. Bilibili can at least deliver in-line 4Q revenue growth propelled by solid VAS and better-than-expected ad and game biz. Kuaishou can deliver 4Q ad revenue in-line with street expectation propelled by solid streaming eCommerce growth and growing advertisers; and saw robust ad spending from gaming in Jan. They are positive on all three names, given recent sharp ad spending rebound from several verticals and further consumer / ad spending recovery in 2023.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
China eCommerce primary research report
Consumer Discretionary
Westlake observed online discretionary spending (except for cosmetics) recovered gradually in Jul & Aug, but softened slightly in Sept & Oct given rising community lockdowns. They expect Alibaba, JD, Pinduoduo, Vipshop and Kuaishou will meet 3Q Street expectations. Given modest improvements in business and consumer confidence, they anticipate further 4Q sales recovery for leading Chinese eComm players driven by 11.11 promotions and likely continued government consumption coupons. If Covid restrictions gradually ease after the 20th party congress, a broad-based recovery will help boost consumer spending.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022
China: e-commerce grassroots surveys
Community group buying e-commerce competition landscape further optimised - JD.com shrinks, while Meituan Select, DuoDuo Grocery and Tao CaiCai’s market shares improve. Meituan Select and DuoDuo Grocery are clearly better positioned in terms of order volume, with a combined market share of c.80%. More details on traditional e-commerce business, live streaming e-commerce competition between Kuaishou and Douyin, and express industry dynamics are available in Horizon Insight's quarterly survey report.
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022
Communications
The time has come to simplify its confusing sprawl of assets with a series of spin-outs - Tencent Games could replace Activision as the largest global game content stock, worth $150bn, and this excludes its vast portfolio of studios, IP and private stakes. While Tencent will likely be obliged to put Fintech into a standalone Holdco., this creates an opportunity to spin out Cloud & Business Services; potential to be a $10bn business by FY26. Major stakes in Tesla, Meituan, Sea and Kuaishou are not required / should be unwound. Importantly, by taking decisive action, it would make it less threatening to the government and limit the impact of regulation across the group.
Edition: 133
- 14 April, 2022
China E-commerce Q3 Local Surveys: Industry Competition Has Intensified
Horizon Insights' quarterly surveys pointed out that traditional e-commerce lost share due to increased competition.
Live-stream e-commerce continues to evolve. Douyin and Kuaishou have different business models, both have high GMV growth. More brands are establishing relationships with different hosts, using livestreaming as an online ”distribution channel” to gain sales volume. Kuaishou predominantly focused on influencer live-stream; this model has strong stickiness and high conversion. Horizon Insights believes Kuaishou's model will generate larger sales volume in the future.
In the community group buying space, top three players have emerged: PDD, Meituan & Alibaba.
Edition: 124
- 26 November, 2021
Kuaishou (1024 HK) vs. TikTok
Communications
With short video platforms becoming the centrepiece of mobile entertainment more and more companies are trying to toss their hats in the ring, however, the two companies in the spotlight in China's domestic market are Kuaishou and TikTok. Horizon Insights' in-depth report examines the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two companies with direct comparisons of the in-traffic flow and duration, monetisation methods, and growth strategies of each platform.
Edition: 109
- 30 April, 2021