Upstart (UPST)

Financials

MYST Advisors

No brand identity or special sauce - UPST is a lending company disguised as a tech company and will end up like other previously "high-flying" FinTech platforms (e.g. LendingClub and Lemonade). Despite a ~65% decline from highs, the stock still trades at ~65x FY22 EPS, ~8x Sales, and ~21x BV. Provides a good setup for going short with expectations high after strong 4Q21. Consensus FY23 EPS is $3.25 but could fall to $1.50 if securitization market dries up. Sees no reason for it to exist in 5 years. TP $10 (90% downside).

- 04 March, 2022

Upstart (UPST)

Financials

MYST Advisors

Fintech but trades like a Software company with valuation in “Lala Land” - sees near-term regulatory risk as this AI lending platform's focus on educational background data to predict creditworthiness potentially violates fair lending laws. UPST competes with banks but lacks capital. Overly reliant on Credit Karma (Intuit) to drive business. Also highlights poor unit economics and minimal operating leverage. Is UPST the next LendingClub? TP $15 (85% downside).

- 14 May, 2021