Tenaris (TEN IM) Italy

Energy

Stockcube

Stockcube opens a short position as TEN's share price reasserts the downtrend and makes new short term relative lows. Their TP is €10.50. The stock was one of the names highlighted in Stockcube’s Daily Europe Top 200 Bulls & Bears report this week, where they also opened a long position in Lonza Group (finds short term uptrends; TP CHF600). Having recently closed shorts in Norsk Hydro (finds short term price and relative support) and Kering (finds long term support at €240), as well as closing their long position in Deutsche Bank (now trades sideways), Stockcube’s portfolio currently consists of 44 open longs and 26 shorts.

- 23 August, 2024

Lonza (LONN SW) Switzerland

Healthcare

Gradient Analytics

The FY23 consensus gross margin estimate implies a relatively modest 72bps y/y contraction - given that inventory levels: a) appear outsized relative to both trailing and forward sales, and b) may be ageing unfavourably, Gradient believes there is a heightened risk of LONN’s margin performance falling short of this target. Additional concerns flagged include how revenue quality appears to have declined as receivables growth handily outpaced sales growth in 2022 while past-due receivables nearly doubled and surging CapEx / construction in progress could signal that depreciation expense was unsustainably low last year.

- 23 June, 2023

FDA Aducanumab Approval - Calculating the CDMO Windfall

Healthcare

Intron Health

Intron Health have conducted a detailed analysis which shows how much aducanumab will need to be produced, who the winners are likely to be and the revenue uplift - they estimate that there are ~30m potential patients and a need for ~30,000kg of aducanumab. Biogen will only be able to produce ~25% of the quantity required, the rest will go to CDMOs. Biggest beneficiaries include Lonza (could see a 14% EBIT benefit and an 11% sales uplift vs. Intron’s 2024 forecasts) and Samsung Bio (potential 37% uplift to EBIT).

- 11 June, 2021