EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

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Gradient Analytics

Gradient’s main short-term concern is potential top-line disappointments driven by a host of demand-related factors, including elevated inventory levels at major customer, Ciena (among others), lower levels of data-centre Capex spend, lower demand for smartphone 3D sensing products and softer sales of Commercial Lasers products. A relative spike in AR exacerbates their concern and unusual growth in prepayments and other current assets adds another margin headwind in coming quarters. Additionally, disproportionate inventory growth appears to predate the NeoPhotonics merger and current inventory levels appear disconnected from near-term demand.

Edition: 166

- 04 August, 2023