Technology
Uber appears to be getting more aggressive with fare pricing and LYFT is responding by following suit. However, Hesham Shaaban is not expecting a race to the bottom in the form of a price war in a 2-horse race and believes now is the time to start building a long position in the stock. While LYFT produced mixed results for 4Q24 (and estimates should rebase), there were two big positives: 1) Autonomous vehicles - aspirations are more than just management sweet-talking the Street; LYFT is now in more control of the AV narrative around its stock, which should help mitigate the competitive AV headlines. 2) Stock buyback programme - at a minimum it introduces an incremental buyer to the market.
Edition: 205
- 21 February, 2025
Technology
Ridesharing will never be a one-horse race - while LYFT may have burned a lot of bridges with consumers (non-refundable cancellations), the one thing that will bring them back is surge pricing on Uber. As far as the next print is concerned, Hesham Shaaban does not see much risk to 4Q bookings or revenue; he suspects LYFT could potentially see a 2-handle on booking growth and double-digit revenue growth (vs. consensus of 3%). For 1Q24, his scenario analysis suggests there are multiple pathways to exceeding consensus bookings estimates even if frequency doesn’t improve and consensus EBITDA estimates don’t appear to be adequately considering LYFT’s YTD Opex cuts.
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
Communications
A counter cyclical bet in a weakening macroeconomic backdrop - UBER’s uniqueness stems from its multi-product platform which ensures higher utilisation and earnings potential for drivers. A strong supply-side leads to lower wait times and cost for customers which are the two most important variables for customer stickiness. The barrier to entry is increasing for competition as UBER’s moat continues to widen driven by its scale and network. The company reported a blowout Q4 whereas competitor Lyft struggled. The stock could compound at ~17% over 5-7 years with a 30% upside over 12-18 months as UBER achieves GAAP profitability in 2023.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Communications
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
Upgrades to Buy - combination of multiple catalysts and overly negative sentiment creates a favourable risk:reward dynamic - 1) Improving driver supply (GHRA’s proprietary data shows positive performance in wait times). 2) Improving conversion rates (highest in several years). 3) Continued shared ride adoption. 4) Employees are returning to offices (Sept was a turning point). 5) Lyft Media is an underappreciated and potentially high margin business segment. GHRA also highlights the valuation gap with Uber (70% discount is unjustified) and why LYFT is increasingly looking like a prime activist target.
Edition: 147
- 28 October, 2022
Short model portfolio outperforms by 31%
26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Communications
Increased confidence in Q4 potential and driver supply - Northcoast’s channel work suggests a triple play of trends happening in the industry: 1) stable / declining incentives, 2) rate hikes (UBER pricing +2.9% in Oct & +4.9% in Nov; LYFT +2.6% in Oct & +4.6% Nov) which seem to be a plus to spreads / economics, and 3) improving levels of consumer engagement. Drivers are reporting record weekly income, pick-up pings within seconds of turning on the app, and consistent requests for drives 90+ miles when they had never seen such requests in the past. Preferred stock is Lyft - TP $65 (55% upside).
Edition: 125
- 10 December, 2021
Communications
No lasting impact from the pandemic - Northcoast’s channel work confirms consumer demand is returning for ride hailing consumption. Management’s efforts to address driver shortages also bodes well for long-term market share gains. Given recent moves in the Tech/Auto space a pure-play network such as LYFT will be increasingly attractive from an M&A standpoint to the future winners of the autonomous race.
Edition: 117
- 20 August, 2021