EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) India

Consumer Discretionary

India Independent Insight

M&M’s decision to pre-announce GST benefits - branding itself as a “consumer-first” OEM - may be less about patriotism and more about inventory management. Dealer checks reveal heavy discounting, even on new models like the Thar Roxx, despite expectations for strong festive demand. Wholesale dispatches have trended down since May, with August volumes (~40k) significantly lower than even last year’s levels. Discounts are valid only until Sep 21st, ahead of GST 2.0 implementation, suggesting M&M is flushing dealer stock to enable a push into Oct’s festive peak. While this strategy could boost near-term volumes, it raises margin risk and potential disruption to the EV transition.

Edition: 220

- 19 September, 2025


Big cap GEM Bank investment recommendations for 2024

Financials

Galliano's Financials Research

Victor Galliano favours four longs and one short as his conviction calls for the year ahead. 1) Bank Mandiri (Indonesia) continues to generate improving returns and has strong capital ratios, credit quality and liquidity metrics. 2) KB Financial (South Korea) is a deep value pick. 3) China Merchants Bank is a contrarian pick, which looks well positioned to confront concerns re. Chinese NPLs and also on very attractive valuations. 4) Banco do Brasil screens well re. valuations and returns; its growth potential also looks particularly appealing. 5) Victor’s key sell is Kotak Mahindra Bank (India) as it is richly valued, exposed to low prospective earnings growth and has low credit quality coverage.

Edition: 177

- 12 January, 2024


India: Affordable housing market attracts a surge of finance companies

Financials

India Independent Insight

The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) has provided opportunities for low-income individuals to own homes in urban areas through the Credit Linked Subsidy Scheme. The scheme has benefited both home borrowers and real estate developers, as the government bears a substantial subsidy burden. The affordable housing market is thriving, especially in Tier 2 and Tier 3 locations, attracting a surge of finance companies. However, there are risks associated with above-average growth and credit decisions. Attrition rates are high and employee behaviour can impact loan disbursal. The market could be at a cyclical peak.

Companies covered include Aptus Value Housing, Aavas Financiers, Home First Finance, Capri Global, Mahindra Finance, AU Small Finance Bank, IIFL, Piramal Enterprises and Five-Star Business Finance.

Edition: 163

- 23 June, 2023


Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) India

Financials

Hemindra Hazari

The backdoor entry of Uday Kotak into the board of directors of KMB after he steps down as the CEO at the end of the year should be recognised for what it is, namely, a method of exercising control over the bank without being saddled with executive responsibilities. This decision also reflects poorly on the board of directors for not taking CEO succession seriously for two decades. When a prominent entity in the financial system has a history of disdain towards the regulators and finds loopholes to permit the founder to exercise control, stakeholders should be concerned.

Edition: 159

- 28 April, 2023