EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Melrose (MRO LN) UK

Industrials

Dragoneye Research

Since Dragoneye's initiation in early Jun, the share price has dropped by over 25%, offering a significant short opportunity. This decline was driven by several factors: persistent cash flow issues, concerns about past management incentives and motivations, and a growing recognition that aggressive accounting practices have inflated profits. These issues culminated in a significant cash downgrade following the first-half results. Dragoneye's exclusive 49-page report highlighted all of these problems. A recent follow-up report, after the first-half results, further emphasizes potential downside risks if more questions are raised about the company's use of factoring. Factoring appears to have boosted an already weak first-half cash flow figure, but this was not disclosed in the company's financial statements.

Edition: 194

- 06 September, 2024


Special Situations: 10 stocks poised for long-term growth

The Edge

The companies highlighted in The Edge's latest report are all undervalued vs. their industry peers, while exhibiting strong fundamentals, including impressive profit margins and strategic leverage. European and US names include: 1) Melrose - divesture of its Aerospace division looks set to unlock considerable value for investors. 2) Solvay - the share price has rerated sharply higher following the successful spin-off of Syensqo earlier this month. 3) BorgWarner - ICE to EV opportunity. 4) MDU Resources - the next big utility play; activist involvement. Click on the button below for further information on how to capitalise on these and more spin-off opportunities.

Edition: 176

- 22 December, 2023


Melrose (MRO LN) UK

Financials

Holland Advisors

Covid has found management having to take far longer with the GKN turnaround than they initially thought. As a result, Andrew Hollingworth wonders if Mr Market has forgotten what they are capable of. He considers the price of success - i.e. what value to ascribe to MRO should its turnaround be broadly successful. The short answer is: £15.7bn. This being the EV that he postulates current pre-split MRO is worth c.3 years from now (~125% return). For some investors an assumption of the Aerospace division's growth in the coming years + margin recovery + re-leveraging + this capital being used to boost equity returns sounds like a super-unlikely tri-factor of events. Andrew disagrees…

Edition: 156

- 17 March, 2023