EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

UK Mid Caps: Cheap Tech

Willis Welby

Basic metrics for Willis Welby’s UK mid cap Tech coverage remain compelling - financial productivity is universally strong, the median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is just 66 and the median consensus Y3 revenue growth is 9.1%. Highlighted stocks include Moneysupermarket - boasts a great balance sheet, decent growth and an implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of just 45. This share price would not feel strange 50% higher. Kainos - impressive growth model with good returns, a strong balance sheet and a cautious share price. The implied to Y3 EBITM ratio is back down at 66. This combination warrants a further move of 30%+ and a share price of at least GBP 14.00.

Edition: 182

- 22 March, 2024


Moneysupermarket (MONY LN) UK

Communications

Willis Welby

Interim results looked good - revenue was up 11% with Insurance particularly strong. There was a sharp increase in margins and management guided to the top of the range. Analysts have put through some meaningful upgrades for Y1 and Y2, but the share price has fallen markedly since then. Willis Welby continues to be bullish. There is a decent growth model and a good financial model. The balance sheet is strong. The implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of just 50 is too low. They see MONY, along with Next 15 and Team17, as prime candidates to be taken over by Private Equity.

Edition: 167

- 18 August, 2023


Seriously cheap UK mid caps

Willis Welby

The median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio for Willis Welby’s UK coverage is now 68 for which you get median consensus Y3 revenue growth of 5.4%. And over the last three months the median move in Y2 EBIT is still an UPGRADE of 0.8%. The Q2 reporting season could be a rude wake up call, but so far, they cannot see the huge economic downturn that is priced into this part of their coverage. And if it does not materialise, then UK mid cap shares are seriously cheap. Industrials (Manufacturing & Support Services) look particularly interesting - highlights Coats, Morgan Advanced, Qinetiq, Hays and Serco. They also see decent revisions and a compelling balance of growth and expectations across Technology names such as Team17, Moneysupermarket, Auction Technology and Kainos.

Edition: 165

- 21 July, 2023